Election 2010 Post Mortem

There is no other way to put this: last night's election was historic. Republicans picked up a minimum of 60 seats in the House of Representatives, the biggest pickup by a party since 1948.

House
Republicans will have a minimum of 239 seats but will likely end up with between 240 and 242 by the time all the races are called. The Democrats will have less than 200 members of the House for the first time since 1946.
So far, 49 incumbent Democrats have been defeated including 3 Committee Chairmen: James Oberstar (MN-8)- Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Ike Skelton (MO-4)- Armed Services Committee, and John Spratt (SC-5)- Budget Committee. Two Republicans incumbents were defeated, Charles Djou (HI-1), and Joseph Cao (LA-3).

Senate
The Senate was a more mixed picture. Republicans have picked up 6 seats so far while successfully defending all of their own. The GOP picked up open seats in Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. But failed to pick open seats in Connecticut, Delaware, and West Virginia. Two Democratic incumbents were knocked off, Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas by a landslide, and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin by a narrow but comfortable margin. Targeted Democrats survived in California, Colorado, and Nevada. Washington has yet to be called but the Democrat is leading by 1-2 percent.
Alaska has also yet to be called with Lisa Murkowski apparently leading by 6-7 points in a write-in campaign over Tea Party candidate Joe Miller. Since Democrat Scott McAdams will finish in 3rd place and both Miller and Murkowski have vowed to caucus with Republicans that seat can safely be called a Republican hold.

Governorships
Republican now have the majority of governorships after the 2010 Elections. The have captured state houses from Democrats in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Races in Oregon and Illinois have yet to be called but Democrats are leading in both.
Democrats took California, and Hawaii from the GOP but are leading in Minnesota and Connecticut as well, although some outlets have already called Connecticut for the Democrats already. Republicans have also lost Rhode Island to independent candidate Lincoln Chafee, a former Republican Senator.

State Legislatures
Democrats came into the election with a significant advantage but so far have lost 18 state legislatures: Alabama House and Senate, Indiana House, Iowa House, Maine House and Senate, Michigan House, Minnesota House and Senate, Montana House (which was 50/50 before), New Hampshire Senate, New York Senate, North Carolina House and Senate, Ohio House, Pennsylvania House, and the Wisconsin House and Senate. The Oregon House which was under firm Democratic control before the election is now split 30/30.

The winning of the House of Representatives by Republicans and the severely narrowed Democratic majority in the Senate will put a very effective block on any left-wing legislation that President Obama may wish to pass, and the pick ups in Governorships and state legislatures bodes well for Republicans in the upcoming redistricting that will reshape the electoral map.

Tea Party
Tea Party energy is what is primarily what made the gains Republicans won possible, but they have a mixed record of success in the Senate: Marco Rubio and Rand Paul won big victories in Republican seats, and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania won seats previously held by Democrats. But Sharon Angle was defeated by Harry Reid by 5 points in Nevada and Ken Buck lost to Michael Bennett in Colorado, and O'Donnell cost Republicans a sure victory in Delaware and Joe Miller appears headed for defeat in Alaska to moderate Republican Lisa Murkowski.
Toomey, and Rubio proved strong conservatives can win swing states and nominal blue states, but the Tea Party defeats also prove that the Tea Party must be more careful to nominate credible candidates.

Predictions: 2010 Elections 10/31/10

The election is just 2 days away and Republicans are poised to take control of at least one chamber of congress. Some Governor and Senate races are beginning to tighten as House races are generally headed in the direction of Republicans.

I predict a 60 or so net pick up for Republicans in the House, giving them control by at least a 20 seat margin. Although there are far more seats in play I think that some of these seats will in the end send the Democrat back to Washington, albeit narrowly which will make them think twice about voting party line with the left.

The Senate could go Republican, but in the end I don't think it will. Connecticut is now a near lost hope for Republicans, as is Delaware. However, Arkansas, North Dakota, and Indiana are lost for Democrats. Wisconsin is almost as hopeless for the Dems. That's 4. But several tossups look to make election night interesting: Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Illinois, West Virginia, Washington, and California are all considered tossups.
Among those Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Colorado seem headed for the Republican column. Illinois looks slightly tilted Republican as well, but not as much. It is also unknown is the Democratic candidate will receive a bounce from last minute campaigning by President Obama, who is still popular in that state. If those seats go Republican that will be a pick up of 8.
In West Virginia Manchin is headed up in the polls, the most Recent Rasmussen poll has him up 49-46% over his Republican opponent.
Washington is neck and neck between Democrat Senator Murray and Republican challenger Rossi. But this state is Blue by nature so the edge has to go to Murray. Finally in California, 3-term Senator Barbara Boxer is within the margin of error ahead of Businesswoman Carly Fiorina. Boxer has been consistently ahead, but also, consistently under 50%, a danger for any incumbent. I wouldn't rule out an upset for any of these races, but odds are at least two, if not all three of them, will stay Democratic.
I'd say Republicans will pick up 7-9 seats in the Senate.

37 Governorships are up this year and Republicans stand to pick up several. Rasmussen has Republicans picking up Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming for sure. Illinois, and Pennsylvania are also leaning that way. That is 11 seats.
Ohio, Oregon, and Massachusetts, all Democrat seats, are tossups, but Ohio does look like it will go Republican. Rhode Island is a 3-way race with the Republican a distant 3rd in every poll so that seat will either go independent or Democrat. Hawaii had been a near certain Democrat pick up but recent tightening in polls have shown a close race. However other, newer polls have shown former Democratic congressman Neil Abercrombie pulling ahead once again of Lt Governor Duke Aiona. When this election is over I expect Republicans to have between 31 and 33 governorships.

My Predictions:
House- About +60 GOP (239 House seats)
Senate- +7-9 GOP (48-50 Senate seats)
Governorships- +7-9 GOP (31-33 Governorships)

A larger than expected Republican turnout could mean even greater gains than expected, just like last minute liberal enthusiasm could reduce expected gains.

Check out these sites for the latest on the Election:

Rasmussen Reports
Real Clear Politics

Senate 2010 Predictions 9/30

As of today all Republican held seats seem safe. But Rasmussen has 3 Democratic seats currently rated Sold GOP: Arkansas, Indiana, and North Dakota. Also, three others are rated Lean GOP: Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. With those seats alone Republicans would gain six seats. Illinois is and has been even for some time, and Nevada and Washington have drifted between even and a slight lead for the incumbent. Finally West Virginia has become even recently as the race has become nationalized.

If I were to guess I would say Republicans would pick up: Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and West Virginia. That's 7.

They will also pick up at least one, but possibly two or three of the following: Illinois, Washington, and Nevada. That's 8-10 seats.
My prediction: A 9 seat gain for Republicans. That would give us a 50/50 Senate with the two independents siding with the Democrats and Vice President Biden breaking the tie.

You can take a closer look at the polls I made my predictions from at:
Rasmussen: Senate Balance of Power

Real Healthcare Reform is Needed, Not a Left-Wing Monstrosity

The Democrats could have had an easy win last year by passing a simple set of reforms to improve the healthcare system. Instead chose to go down the road of the worst mix of ideological obstinacy and special interest capitulation. They even openly and blatantly bribed senators on the fence to try to pass their bill. They ignored public will and paid the price in Massachusetts, with the cost of their filibuster-proof senate, and, the seat of one of the left's most beloved icons Ted Kennedy going to Republicans.

What kind of bill could they have passed for an easy win? Just a few easy reforms would have gone a long way with the public's good will:
1. Interstate Competition
2. Portability when employees change jobs
3. Don't allow companies to drop customers when they get sick
4. Tort reform
5. Pre-existing conditions

The first three would have been easy, with no real opposition to block it, tort reform would have had opposition by the trial lawyers but could have been done. Pre-existing conditions may have been difficult. What reason would an insurance company have for taking someone with a condition that they know for a fact will cost them much more then the customer could possibly put in? However, even this could have been done with smart and delicate legislation.

America would have been better off with a bill with the provisions stated, but the Democrats chose to go the ideological and special interest routes. If Republicans know what is good for them, and they manage to regain the majority in the midterm elections, they would be wise to pass smart, simple, and effective healthcare reform if they want to help the country and themselves at the same time.