There is just no other way to put it. The Democrats were beaten bad in last night's midterm.
House
Republicans have picked up at least 10 seats raising their minimum seat count in the next congress to 243, one more than the 242 they had after the 2010 elections and their are 14 races yet to be called.
Senate
Republicans held all of their own seats and picked up seats in: West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas, Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa for a minimum pickup of 7. And there are 2 races to be decided: Alaska, where Republican Dan Sullivan leads incumbent Senator Mark Begich by 4 points, but it has yet to be called, and Louisiana where it will head to a runoff in December,
Three Democratic incumbents have been defeated: Mark Pryor in Arkansas, Mark Uall in Colorado and Kay Hagan in North Carolina. This could go as high as 5 if Mark Begich loses in Alaska and Mary Landrieu loses in Louisiana.
Democrats held off a challenge by Scott Brown in New Hampshire and will also likely win in Virginia where the elections results gave a scare to Democrats turning out to be much closer than they had thought.
Gubernatorial
Republicans lost Pennsylvania decisively, incumbent Governor Corbett lost to Democrat Tom Wolf and look likely to lose Alaska where independent candidate Bill Walker is leading Republican Governor Sean Parnell.
But they held onto the rest of their seats. They fended off challenges in Wisconsin, Florida, Maine, and Kansas. While they picked up seats in: Arkansas, Illinois, Massachusetts and Maryland.
Republicans lost one incumbent, Pennsylvania and will lose two if Parnell loses in Alaska. Democrats only lost one incumbent, in Illinois.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Monday, November 3, 2014
Last Minute Election Thoughts
Most pundits think Republicans will take the Senate and make modest gains in the House. But most also think Republicans are in for some losses in the Governors' races.
House
No one seriously thinks Republicans will lose the House, or even lose seats from their majority, but there are not a whole lot of seats left for them to win. In 2010 the GOP picked up 63 seats, almost reaching the limits of how many seats it was statistically possible for them to win. In 2012 they lost 8 seats, and this years they will get some or all of them back, and if they are really lucky just a few more.
But the high 240s are the limit of what the GOP can realistically win, and at this point I'm guessing they will gain 7-8 seats.
Senate
Republicans are in for gains tomorrow, that much is sure, but how many? That is the question. They will almost certainly take West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana. That brings them up to 48 seats. Then there is Arkansas which is almost as certain to go Republican. That brings them to 49. That is the extent of the sure or almost sure bets.
After that there is Alaska, which is leaning Republican but there is a small chance the Democratic Senator Mark Begich could hold on. Then there is Louisiana which will probably go to a runoff, but the Republican is favored to win, however Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu has beaten the odds before, but I think this year that will change. If Republicans take both races they reach 51 seats, and take control of the Senate.
Then there are Colorado and Iowa. Colorado Democratic Senator Mark Udall looks like he is in a lot of trouble, he is consistently behind and his challenger Cory Gardener has run a great campaign, which could also be said about the race in Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst has run a solid campaign and Congressman Bruce Braley has made a series of mistakes that has turned this seat from an almost sure Democratic hold to a tossup with the Republican favored to win. Having said that only one poll as of now has this race more than a 2 point race so an upset win by Braley is possible, but I would say Ernst has the edge. If Republicans take both seats they will have 53 seats in the Senate, but then there are the Democrat pick up opportunities to deal with.
There are only 3: Kentucky, Georgia and Kansas (most people think independent Greg Orman will side with Democrats if elected). In Kentucky it looks like Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has begun to build a lead and this seat is no longer endangered. In Georgia Democrat Michelle Nunn has managed to distance herself from Obama while David Perdue (the Republican) has run a bad race, even though he still leads and is slightly favored to win this will likely go to a runoff in January because to a candidate must win more than 50% of the vote and a libertarian candidate is pulling about 4% of the vote away from Perdue. Mr. Perdue is favored to win in January, but there is always the possibility of a Democrat upset win, even in November with exceptionally high black turnout.
The other race is the one Republicans really have to worry about, Kansas. Three term Senator Pat Roberts is consistently (although very slightly) behind independent candidate Greg Orman who will likely side with Democrats if he wins. Roberts is stuck in the low 40s and can't get any higher so unless Republican turnout is sky high this race looks like a loss for the GOP.
There are two long shots for Republicans but I doubt they will win either, but there is a small chance, North Carolina and New Hampshire. In North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan (D) has maintained a consistent lead over Thom Tillis (R), although the lead is small and Hagan is under 50%, but high Dem turnout and a libertarian candidate will likely save her. In New Hampshire Scott Brown (R) had no chance at all until a few weeks ago, Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) has made a series of gaffes and Brown has run a great campaign. But Shaheen's popularity is close to 50% and has been consistently ahead so she will likely hold on. But if either of these Races go Republican it will be a very long night for the Democrats.
There is still a path for holding onto the Senate for the Democrats and here it is: Take Kansas and hold unto at least 2 out of 3 of: Iowa, Louisiana, and Colorado or one out of three and take Georgia.
Governorships
Democrats are expected to take Pennsylvania for almost certain and look to also take Florida, Kansas and probably Maine. They also have decent chances in Wisconsin and Michigan but are by no means close to sure wins.
Republicans will almost certainly take Arkansas, and could take Colorado, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois and Rhode Island, but they are tossups at best.
When all is said and done Democrats can expect to gain up to 5 seats and a worst case scenario lose 1 or 2 net.
House
No one seriously thinks Republicans will lose the House, or even lose seats from their majority, but there are not a whole lot of seats left for them to win. In 2010 the GOP picked up 63 seats, almost reaching the limits of how many seats it was statistically possible for them to win. In 2012 they lost 8 seats, and this years they will get some or all of them back, and if they are really lucky just a few more.
But the high 240s are the limit of what the GOP can realistically win, and at this point I'm guessing they will gain 7-8 seats.
Senate
Republicans are in for gains tomorrow, that much is sure, but how many? That is the question. They will almost certainly take West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana. That brings them up to 48 seats. Then there is Arkansas which is almost as certain to go Republican. That brings them to 49. That is the extent of the sure or almost sure bets.
After that there is Alaska, which is leaning Republican but there is a small chance the Democratic Senator Mark Begich could hold on. Then there is Louisiana which will probably go to a runoff, but the Republican is favored to win, however Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu has beaten the odds before, but I think this year that will change. If Republicans take both races they reach 51 seats, and take control of the Senate.
Then there are Colorado and Iowa. Colorado Democratic Senator Mark Udall looks like he is in a lot of trouble, he is consistently behind and his challenger Cory Gardener has run a great campaign, which could also be said about the race in Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst has run a solid campaign and Congressman Bruce Braley has made a series of mistakes that has turned this seat from an almost sure Democratic hold to a tossup with the Republican favored to win. Having said that only one poll as of now has this race more than a 2 point race so an upset win by Braley is possible, but I would say Ernst has the edge. If Republicans take both seats they will have 53 seats in the Senate, but then there are the Democrat pick up opportunities to deal with.
There are only 3: Kentucky, Georgia and Kansas (most people think independent Greg Orman will side with Democrats if elected). In Kentucky it looks like Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has begun to build a lead and this seat is no longer endangered. In Georgia Democrat Michelle Nunn has managed to distance herself from Obama while David Perdue (the Republican) has run a bad race, even though he still leads and is slightly favored to win this will likely go to a runoff in January because to a candidate must win more than 50% of the vote and a libertarian candidate is pulling about 4% of the vote away from Perdue. Mr. Perdue is favored to win in January, but there is always the possibility of a Democrat upset win, even in November with exceptionally high black turnout.
The other race is the one Republicans really have to worry about, Kansas. Three term Senator Pat Roberts is consistently (although very slightly) behind independent candidate Greg Orman who will likely side with Democrats if he wins. Roberts is stuck in the low 40s and can't get any higher so unless Republican turnout is sky high this race looks like a loss for the GOP.
There are two long shots for Republicans but I doubt they will win either, but there is a small chance, North Carolina and New Hampshire. In North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan (D) has maintained a consistent lead over Thom Tillis (R), although the lead is small and Hagan is under 50%, but high Dem turnout and a libertarian candidate will likely save her. In New Hampshire Scott Brown (R) had no chance at all until a few weeks ago, Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) has made a series of gaffes and Brown has run a great campaign. But Shaheen's popularity is close to 50% and has been consistently ahead so she will likely hold on. But if either of these Races go Republican it will be a very long night for the Democrats.
There is still a path for holding onto the Senate for the Democrats and here it is: Take Kansas and hold unto at least 2 out of 3 of: Iowa, Louisiana, and Colorado or one out of three and take Georgia.
Governorships
Democrats are expected to take Pennsylvania for almost certain and look to also take Florida, Kansas and probably Maine. They also have decent chances in Wisconsin and Michigan but are by no means close to sure wins.
Republicans will almost certainly take Arkansas, and could take Colorado, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois and Rhode Island, but they are tossups at best.
When all is said and done Democrats can expect to gain up to 5 seats and a worst case scenario lose 1 or 2 net.
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