One of the main groups that helped reelect President Obama was Hispanics. This has led for calls by some for Republicans to rethink their policies on illegal immigration. And rethinking the rhetoric some use on illegal immigration and possibly some policies on the margins should be considered.
But some questions need to be asked. Let's say we grant another amnesty to all illegal immigrants currently in the country. They are now legal. What happens to illegals who come after the amnesty is granted? Would we finally enforce the law? Or would we just let it slide again for several years until to pro-illegal lobby calls for another amnesty? Would we even secure our borders?
We had these promises before the last amnesty. Enforcement was promised. Border security was promised. Both were delayed and then dropped when public attention drifted away.
Wouldn't this just happen again?
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Three States Vote for Same-Sex marriage
For the first time voters approved measures to legalize same-sex marriage in America. Voters in Maryland, Maine, and Washington passed laws legalizing same-sex marriage while voters in Minnesota rejected a proposition to ban it.
I can't stress how big this is, and from my perspective, positive. I have no personal stake in this, I am heterosexual, but I support same-sex marriage because there is no real reason to oppose it. Gay marriage will not erode the institution of marriage, it will simply change it. Two men or two women in a loving relationship that is now recognized by the government will not make the marriages of opposite-sex couples any less meaningful.
I am still very disappointed by the results of the Presidential election. I disagree with the Mitt Romney's stance on same-sex marriage, but I still believe he was the best choice to lead America over the next four years.
But this is a bright spot in an otherwise dim election, at least from my perspective. I hope this encourages the movement to pass measures in other states until we have marriage equality everywhere.
I can't stress how big this is, and from my perspective, positive. I have no personal stake in this, I am heterosexual, but I support same-sex marriage because there is no real reason to oppose it. Gay marriage will not erode the institution of marriage, it will simply change it. Two men or two women in a loving relationship that is now recognized by the government will not make the marriages of opposite-sex couples any less meaningful.
I am still very disappointed by the results of the Presidential election. I disagree with the Mitt Romney's stance on same-sex marriage, but I still believe he was the best choice to lead America over the next four years.
But this is a bright spot in an otherwise dim election, at least from my perspective. I hope this encourages the movement to pass measures in other states until we have marriage equality everywhere.
2012 Election Post Mortem
Election 2012 is behind us and now begins the task of dissecting it. President Obama won reelection. He won the popular vote narrowly and the electoral college much more comfortably. Democrats kept their senate majority easily with 55 seats to Republicans 45, a gain of 2. But Republicans held the house with seats to spare, taking at least 233 seats to Democrats 194 so far, a net gain of 9 seats for the Democrats if they win all the seats yet to be declared.
As polls declared Obama regaining momentum in the past few days many conservatives declared the polls were wrong, saying these they were based on flawed turnout models and that Romney would have at least a few more points than they declared. Some, like Dick Morris even said Romney would win in an electoral landslide.
But the polls were right, the turnout models were accurate and Romney could not reach 270 electoral votes.
So how did Obama win? It looks like Obama repeated the turnout model of 2008. If this model is permanent it bodes ill for the future of our nation.
In Obama's first term he delivered four years of deficits over $1 trillion, added $6 trillion to the debt and left unemployment at 7.9%, with real unemployment well over 10%. To add to that, under his watch America's credit rating was downgraded for the first time in history, not once, but twice.
What will a second Obama term look like? For at least 2 years Republicans have the House, so they can stop new regulations that would kill business, like another Obamacare type bill: Card Check for example.
But Obama will let the Bush tax cuts expire which means higher taxes, and despite his conciliatory tone in his victory speech he will not reach across the isle. And he will not cut spending, he had a chance to do that and didn't with the debt ceiling showdown. So we could see the debt reach $20-22 trillion in the next four years. We very well could see at least one more credit downgrade in the next four years.
There is also the possibility that a conservative justice could retire sending the courts far to the left.
On the international front countries like Russia and China will get whatever they want, even if it is catastrophic to our national security, and Iran may get its nukes.
The worst part of this is if the new turnout model is permanent it will have to get a whole lot worse for a Republican to win in 2016. America will be weaker economically and militarily. We may well see the beginning of the end of America as a superpower.
As polls declared Obama regaining momentum in the past few days many conservatives declared the polls were wrong, saying these they were based on flawed turnout models and that Romney would have at least a few more points than they declared. Some, like Dick Morris even said Romney would win in an electoral landslide.
But the polls were right, the turnout models were accurate and Romney could not reach 270 electoral votes.
So how did Obama win? It looks like Obama repeated the turnout model of 2008. If this model is permanent it bodes ill for the future of our nation.
In Obama's first term he delivered four years of deficits over $1 trillion, added $6 trillion to the debt and left unemployment at 7.9%, with real unemployment well over 10%. To add to that, under his watch America's credit rating was downgraded for the first time in history, not once, but twice.
What will a second Obama term look like? For at least 2 years Republicans have the House, so they can stop new regulations that would kill business, like another Obamacare type bill: Card Check for example.
But Obama will let the Bush tax cuts expire which means higher taxes, and despite his conciliatory tone in his victory speech he will not reach across the isle. And he will not cut spending, he had a chance to do that and didn't with the debt ceiling showdown. So we could see the debt reach $20-22 trillion in the next four years. We very well could see at least one more credit downgrade in the next four years.
There is also the possibility that a conservative justice could retire sending the courts far to the left.
On the international front countries like Russia and China will get whatever they want, even if it is catastrophic to our national security, and Iran may get its nukes.
The worst part of this is if the new turnout model is permanent it will have to get a whole lot worse for a Republican to win in 2016. America will be weaker economically and militarily. We may well see the beginning of the end of America as a superpower.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Final Election Day Predictions and Musings
This election has had many twists and turns, both candidates have had their ups and downs but tomorrow it's over. Romney has made his mistakes but he has run a pretty good campaign, and Obama's angry and small rhetoric feel like the desperate gasps of a losing campaign.
But after being behind for weeks after his dismal performance in the first debate momentum has returned to Obama. Romney's momentum was ending even before Hurricane Sandy but now Obama has the wind at his back. But I don't think it can be entirely be explained by the hurricane. He seems to have some unexplainable way of staying in this race despite his dismal presidency.
Obama's reckless spending added 6 trillion to the debt and we have four years of deficits over $1 trillion, America's credit rating has also been downgraded for the first time in history, and not just once, but twice. To add to that the economy is stuck hovering at just below 8% unemployment and real unemployment is well above 10%. But he is still in the race and I can't explain it.
Romney has done his best to expose the president's record and offer an alternative. He offers hope when Obama offers class-warfare and anger, and yet I believe Obama will ultimately win the election.
The President leads or ties in most polls narrowly, with outliers Gallup and Rasmussen giving Romney a 1-point lead. But state polls look dismal for Romney. Obama leads in Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, but some have him up in Virginia slightly. Some polls are putting Romney up in Florida, but even if he carrys it he needs more to win.
Romney will almost certainly carry all the McCain states, plus Indiana, most likely North Carolina, possibly Virginia and Florida but Ohio looks perpetually out of reach, although some polls have it close or tied. But even if he won them all he would still need another state, because he would be a few electoral votes shy of 270.
So my prediction is Obama narrowly wins both the popular vote and the electoral college, Democrats hold the Senate plus or minus a seat and Republicans hold the House. This bodes ill for bipartisanship, which the President Obama shows no interest in, but it will mean extreme far-left legislation like Card Check would go nowhere, and any attempt to push another Obamacare-like bill would never pass the House.
I could be wrong, the polls might be wrong and Romney could win, but I doubt it. If the polls are right and Obama wins it will mean that a conservative agenda even in the face of all the problems of Obama's presidency has been rejected. Could America have shifted to a center-right country to a liberal country without anyone knowing it? It's hard to say because polls also show Romney is still trusted more on economic issues and yet he is still behind.
And I can't explain it, I would be very interested to see the election post mortem for anwsers.
But after being behind for weeks after his dismal performance in the first debate momentum has returned to Obama. Romney's momentum was ending even before Hurricane Sandy but now Obama has the wind at his back. But I don't think it can be entirely be explained by the hurricane. He seems to have some unexplainable way of staying in this race despite his dismal presidency.
Obama's reckless spending added 6 trillion to the debt and we have four years of deficits over $1 trillion, America's credit rating has also been downgraded for the first time in history, and not just once, but twice. To add to that the economy is stuck hovering at just below 8% unemployment and real unemployment is well above 10%. But he is still in the race and I can't explain it.
Romney has done his best to expose the president's record and offer an alternative. He offers hope when Obama offers class-warfare and anger, and yet I believe Obama will ultimately win the election.
The President leads or ties in most polls narrowly, with outliers Gallup and Rasmussen giving Romney a 1-point lead. But state polls look dismal for Romney. Obama leads in Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, but some have him up in Virginia slightly. Some polls are putting Romney up in Florida, but even if he carrys it he needs more to win.
Romney will almost certainly carry all the McCain states, plus Indiana, most likely North Carolina, possibly Virginia and Florida but Ohio looks perpetually out of reach, although some polls have it close or tied. But even if he won them all he would still need another state, because he would be a few electoral votes shy of 270.
So my prediction is Obama narrowly wins both the popular vote and the electoral college, Democrats hold the Senate plus or minus a seat and Republicans hold the House. This bodes ill for bipartisanship, which the President Obama shows no interest in, but it will mean extreme far-left legislation like Card Check would go nowhere, and any attempt to push another Obamacare-like bill would never pass the House.
I could be wrong, the polls might be wrong and Romney could win, but I doubt it. If the polls are right and Obama wins it will mean that a conservative agenda even in the face of all the problems of Obama's presidency has been rejected. Could America have shifted to a center-right country to a liberal country without anyone knowing it? It's hard to say because polls also show Romney is still trusted more on economic issues and yet he is still behind.
And I can't explain it, I would be very interested to see the election post mortem for anwsers.
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