There are 36 seats up for grabs in the Senate in November and the Democrats are defending 21 compared to Republicans who are defending only 15. Many are safe for one party or the other, but ?? have a reasonable chance for a pick up for one party or the the other.
Dem Pickup Possibilities
The Democrats have only 3 seats where there is a reasonable chance for a pickup.
1. Georgia- This is race where the Republican is ahead, but not far enough to call it safe.
2. Kansas- Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts is easily the most endangered Republican in the senate. He is facing independent Greg Orman who has said he will caucus with whoever wins the senate, but many think if the senate is 50/50, a distinct possibility, he will go with the Democrats. He has been a Democrat and a Republican in the past, but his last run at elective office was as a Democrat.
3. Kentucky- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has survived close elections before, and he has pulled ahead in this race, but with his low popularity there is always an outside chance he may lose.
There are several seats where Republicans could take seats from the Democrats. Some are all but certain, others are long shots, still others are in-between.
1. Alaska- One term Senator Mark Begich won this seat narrowly against a badly damaged incumbent in a terrible environment for Republicans and is seeking another term. He has been behind and ahead in the race, but always under 50% and Alaska is a Republican state. At best this is a toss up, at worst a lean Republican seat.
2. Arkansas has been trending more and more Republican and despite his family name Senator Mark Pryor is in real trouble. This seat is leaning toward a Republican pick up, but is not a slam dunk.
3. Colorado- This was thought to be a likely Dem hold but recent polls have put Republican Cory Gardener ahead of incumbent Senator Mark Udall. If this trend continues I'd say this is another lean Republican seat, but these polls may be a flash in the pan.
4. Iowa- This was likely Dem hold until recent polls showed Republican Joni Ernst tied or ahead of Democrat Bruce Braley. But these polls may not hold or be outliers. Until more polls come out showing a trend I will assume Democrats will hold this seat.
5. Louisiana- Polls show Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu well under 50% and in some cases behind Republican Bill Cassidy in a race with two other Republicans. This race will almost certainly go to a runoff in December. And Landrieu is likely to lose, although she has survived the unpopularity of her party before in elections that were very bad for Democrats, so anything is possible.
6. Michigan- Possibly a sleeper race as polls have shown it close, but the GOP's unpopularity in federal statewide elections in this state must give the Democrats and advantage.
7. Minnesota- A long shot but Republicans have a slim chance to unseat Al Franken.
8. Montana- An all but certain Republican pickup.
9. New Hampshire- Polls have narrowed, but I believe Democrat Jeanne Shaheen will hold this seat against Republican former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown.
10. North Carolina- Democrat Kay Hagan has managed to stay ahead in a somewhat red state in a bad environment for Democrats by running against the state legislature. I'd say right now it is leaning toward a Dem hold, but is by no means safe. For now I'd call it a Democrat hold.
11. South Dakota- This has become a 4 way race with one of the candidates being former Republican Senator Larry Pressler, but Republicans are heavily favored to take this seat from the Democrats.
12. Virginia- Republicans were hopeful to take this seat from Dem incumbent Mark Warner but were never able to get any traction. This seat is safe for the Democrats and only mentioned because Republicans had hopes of winning it.
13. West Virginia- This state is becoming more Republican every year, which is probably why Senator Jay Rockefeller decided not to run for reelection. This seat is all but a guaranteed Republican pickup.
Final Analysis
Of the Republican seats I'd say only one will be picked up by the Dems, Kansas.
Of the Democratic seats 3 are a sure thing for Republicans: Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia.
3 lean toward a Republican pickup: Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana.
4 are tossups or leaning Dem: Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, but all are favoring the Dem at the moment or are using polls that could be aberrations (time will tell).
Things could change, but as of now it looks like Republicans will pick up a net of 5 seats making it a 50/50 senate. This would give Greg Orman the power to decide who gets the majority, Dems in a 50/50 Senate with Vice President Biden breaking the tie or a 51/49 Republican Senate.
Things could change, but as of now it looks like Republicans will pick up a net of 5 seats making it a 50/50 senate. This would give Greg Orman the power to decide who gets the majority, Dems in a 50/50 Senate with Vice President Biden breaking the tie or a 51/49 Republican Senate.
