Most pundits think Republicans will take the Senate and make modest gains in the House. But most also think Republicans are in for some losses in the Governors' races.
House
No one seriously thinks Republicans will lose the House, or even lose seats from their majority, but there are not a whole lot of seats left for them to win. In 2010 the GOP picked up 63 seats, almost reaching the limits of how many seats it was statistically possible for them to win. In 2012 they lost 8 seats, and this years they will get some or all of them back, and if they are really lucky just a few more.
But the high 240s are the limit of what the GOP can realistically win, and at this point I'm guessing they will gain 7-8 seats.
Senate
Republicans are in for gains tomorrow, that much is sure, but how many? That is the question. They will almost certainly take West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana. That brings them up to 48 seats. Then there is Arkansas which is almost as certain to go Republican. That brings them to 49. That is the extent of the sure or almost sure bets.
After that there is Alaska, which is leaning Republican but there is a small chance the Democratic Senator Mark Begich could hold on. Then there is Louisiana which will probably go to a runoff, but the Republican is favored to win, however Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu has beaten the odds before, but I think this year that will change. If Republicans take both races they reach 51 seats, and take control of the Senate.
Then there are Colorado and Iowa. Colorado Democratic Senator Mark Udall looks like he is in a lot of trouble, he is consistently behind and his challenger Cory Gardener has run a great campaign, which could also be said about the race in Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst has run a solid campaign and Congressman Bruce Braley has made a series of mistakes that has turned this seat from an almost sure Democratic hold to a tossup with the Republican favored to win. Having said that only one poll as of now has this race more than a 2 point race so an upset win by Braley is possible, but I would say Ernst has the edge. If Republicans take both seats they will have 53 seats in the Senate, but then there are the Democrat pick up opportunities to deal with.
There are only 3: Kentucky, Georgia and Kansas (most people think independent Greg Orman will side with Democrats if elected). In Kentucky it looks like Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has begun to build a lead and this seat is no longer endangered. In Georgia Democrat Michelle Nunn has managed to distance herself from Obama while David Perdue (the Republican) has run a bad race, even though he still leads and is slightly favored to win this will likely go to a runoff in January because to a candidate must win more than 50% of the vote and a libertarian candidate is pulling about 4% of the vote away from Perdue. Mr. Perdue is favored to win in January, but there is always the possibility of a Democrat upset win, even in November with exceptionally high black turnout.
The other race is the one Republicans really have to worry about, Kansas. Three term Senator Pat Roberts is consistently (although very slightly) behind independent candidate Greg Orman who will likely side with Democrats if he wins. Roberts is stuck in the low 40s and can't get any higher so unless Republican turnout is sky high this race looks like a loss for the GOP.
There are two long shots for Republicans but I doubt they will win either, but there is a small chance, North Carolina and New Hampshire. In North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan (D) has maintained a consistent lead over Thom Tillis (R), although the lead is small and Hagan is under 50%, but high Dem turnout and a libertarian candidate will likely save her. In New Hampshire Scott Brown (R) had no chance at all until a few weeks ago, Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) has made a series of gaffes and Brown has run a great campaign. But Shaheen's popularity is close to 50% and has been consistently ahead so she will likely hold on. But if either of these Races go Republican it will be a very long night for the Democrats.
There is still a path for holding onto the Senate for the Democrats and here it is: Take Kansas and hold unto at least 2 out of 3 of: Iowa, Louisiana, and Colorado or one out of three and take Georgia.
Governorships
Democrats are expected to take Pennsylvania for almost certain and look to also take Florida, Kansas and probably Maine. They also have decent chances in Wisconsin and Michigan but are by no means close to sure wins.
Republicans will almost certainly take Arkansas, and could take Colorado, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois and Rhode Island, but they are tossups at best.
When all is said and done Democrats can expect to gain up to 5 seats and a worst case scenario lose 1 or 2 net.
Showing posts with label Elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elections. Show all posts
Monday, November 3, 2014
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
Republicans May Win the Senate, but it's not a Lock
The math is simply against the Democrats this year, they will lose seats in November, multiple seats. Many say they will lose they Senate, and they might, but it is not a certainty.
There are 36 seats up for grabs in the Senate in November and the Democrats are defending 21 compared to Republicans who are defending only 15. Many are safe for one party or the other, but ?? have a reasonable chance for a pick up for one party or the the other.
Dem Pickup Possibilities
The Democrats have only 3 seats where there is a reasonable chance for a pickup.
1. Georgia- This is race where the Republican is ahead, but not far enough to call it safe.
2. Kansas- Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts is easily the most endangered Republican in the senate. He is facing independent Greg Orman who has said he will caucus with whoever wins the senate, but many think if the senate is 50/50, a distinct possibility, he will go with the Democrats. He has been a Democrat and a Republican in the past, but his last run at elective office was as a Democrat.
3. Kentucky- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has survived close elections before, and he has pulled ahead in this race, but with his low popularity there is always an outside chance he may lose.
Republican Pickup Possibilities
There are several seats where Republicans could take seats from the Democrats. Some are all but certain, others are long shots, still others are in-between.
1. Alaska- One term Senator Mark Begich won this seat narrowly against a badly damaged incumbent in a terrible environment for Republicans and is seeking another term. He has been behind and ahead in the race, but always under 50% and Alaska is a Republican state. At best this is a toss up, at worst a lean Republican seat.
2. Arkansas has been trending more and more Republican and despite his family name Senator Mark Pryor is in real trouble. This seat is leaning toward a Republican pick up, but is not a slam dunk.
3. Colorado- This was thought to be a likely Dem hold but recent polls have put Republican Cory Gardener ahead of incumbent Senator Mark Udall. If this trend continues I'd say this is another lean Republican seat, but these polls may be a flash in the pan.
4. Iowa- This was likely Dem hold until recent polls showed Republican Joni Ernst tied or ahead of Democrat Bruce Braley. But these polls may not hold or be outliers. Until more polls come out showing a trend I will assume Democrats will hold this seat.
5. Louisiana- Polls show Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu well under 50% and in some cases behind Republican Bill Cassidy in a race with two other Republicans. This race will almost certainly go to a runoff in December. And Landrieu is likely to lose, although she has survived the unpopularity of her party before in elections that were very bad for Democrats, so anything is possible.
6. Michigan- Possibly a sleeper race as polls have shown it close, but the GOP's unpopularity in federal statewide elections in this state must give the Democrats and advantage.
7. Minnesota- A long shot but Republicans have a slim chance to unseat Al Franken.
8. Montana- An all but certain Republican pickup.
9. New Hampshire- Polls have narrowed, but I believe Democrat Jeanne Shaheen will hold this seat against Republican former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown.
10. North Carolina- Democrat Kay Hagan has managed to stay ahead in a somewhat red state in a bad environment for Democrats by running against the state legislature. I'd say right now it is leaning toward a Dem hold, but is by no means safe. For now I'd call it a Democrat hold.
11. South Dakota- This has become a 4 way race with one of the candidates being former Republican Senator Larry Pressler, but Republicans are heavily favored to take this seat from the Democrats.
12. Virginia- Republicans were hopeful to take this seat from Dem incumbent Mark Warner but were never able to get any traction. This seat is safe for the Democrats and only mentioned because Republicans had hopes of winning it.
13. West Virginia- This state is becoming more Republican every year, which is probably why Senator Jay Rockefeller decided not to run for reelection. This seat is all but a guaranteed Republican pickup.
There are 36 seats up for grabs in the Senate in November and the Democrats are defending 21 compared to Republicans who are defending only 15. Many are safe for one party or the other, but ?? have a reasonable chance for a pick up for one party or the the other.
Dem Pickup Possibilities
The Democrats have only 3 seats where there is a reasonable chance for a pickup.
1. Georgia- This is race where the Republican is ahead, but not far enough to call it safe.
2. Kansas- Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts is easily the most endangered Republican in the senate. He is facing independent Greg Orman who has said he will caucus with whoever wins the senate, but many think if the senate is 50/50, a distinct possibility, he will go with the Democrats. He has been a Democrat and a Republican in the past, but his last run at elective office was as a Democrat.
3. Kentucky- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has survived close elections before, and he has pulled ahead in this race, but with his low popularity there is always an outside chance he may lose.
There are several seats where Republicans could take seats from the Democrats. Some are all but certain, others are long shots, still others are in-between.
1. Alaska- One term Senator Mark Begich won this seat narrowly against a badly damaged incumbent in a terrible environment for Republicans and is seeking another term. He has been behind and ahead in the race, but always under 50% and Alaska is a Republican state. At best this is a toss up, at worst a lean Republican seat.
2. Arkansas has been trending more and more Republican and despite his family name Senator Mark Pryor is in real trouble. This seat is leaning toward a Republican pick up, but is not a slam dunk.
3. Colorado- This was thought to be a likely Dem hold but recent polls have put Republican Cory Gardener ahead of incumbent Senator Mark Udall. If this trend continues I'd say this is another lean Republican seat, but these polls may be a flash in the pan.
4. Iowa- This was likely Dem hold until recent polls showed Republican Joni Ernst tied or ahead of Democrat Bruce Braley. But these polls may not hold or be outliers. Until more polls come out showing a trend I will assume Democrats will hold this seat.
5. Louisiana- Polls show Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu well under 50% and in some cases behind Republican Bill Cassidy in a race with two other Republicans. This race will almost certainly go to a runoff in December. And Landrieu is likely to lose, although she has survived the unpopularity of her party before in elections that were very bad for Democrats, so anything is possible.
6. Michigan- Possibly a sleeper race as polls have shown it close, but the GOP's unpopularity in federal statewide elections in this state must give the Democrats and advantage.
7. Minnesota- A long shot but Republicans have a slim chance to unseat Al Franken.
8. Montana- An all but certain Republican pickup.
9. New Hampshire- Polls have narrowed, but I believe Democrat Jeanne Shaheen will hold this seat against Republican former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown.
10. North Carolina- Democrat Kay Hagan has managed to stay ahead in a somewhat red state in a bad environment for Democrats by running against the state legislature. I'd say right now it is leaning toward a Dem hold, but is by no means safe. For now I'd call it a Democrat hold.
11. South Dakota- This has become a 4 way race with one of the candidates being former Republican Senator Larry Pressler, but Republicans are heavily favored to take this seat from the Democrats.
12. Virginia- Republicans were hopeful to take this seat from Dem incumbent Mark Warner but were never able to get any traction. This seat is safe for the Democrats and only mentioned because Republicans had hopes of winning it.
13. West Virginia- This state is becoming more Republican every year, which is probably why Senator Jay Rockefeller decided not to run for reelection. This seat is all but a guaranteed Republican pickup.
Final Analysis
Of the Republican seats I'd say only one will be picked up by the Dems, Kansas.
Of the Democratic seats 3 are a sure thing for Republicans: Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia.
3 lean toward a Republican pickup: Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana.
4 are tossups or leaning Dem: Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, but all are favoring the Dem at the moment or are using polls that could be aberrations (time will tell).
Things could change, but as of now it looks like Republicans will pick up a net of 5 seats making it a 50/50 senate. This would give Greg Orman the power to decide who gets the majority, Dems in a 50/50 Senate with Vice President Biden breaking the tie or a 51/49 Republican Senate.
Things could change, but as of now it looks like Republicans will pick up a net of 5 seats making it a 50/50 senate. This would give Greg Orman the power to decide who gets the majority, Dems in a 50/50 Senate with Vice President Biden breaking the tie or a 51/49 Republican Senate.
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
2012 Election Post Mortem
Election 2012 is behind us and now begins the task of dissecting it. President Obama won reelection. He won the popular vote narrowly and the electoral college much more comfortably. Democrats kept their senate majority easily with 55 seats to Republicans 45, a gain of 2. But Republicans held the house with seats to spare, taking at least 233 seats to Democrats 194 so far, a net gain of 9 seats for the Democrats if they win all the seats yet to be declared.
As polls declared Obama regaining momentum in the past few days many conservatives declared the polls were wrong, saying these they were based on flawed turnout models and that Romney would have at least a few more points than they declared. Some, like Dick Morris even said Romney would win in an electoral landslide.
But the polls were right, the turnout models were accurate and Romney could not reach 270 electoral votes.
So how did Obama win? It looks like Obama repeated the turnout model of 2008. If this model is permanent it bodes ill for the future of our nation.
In Obama's first term he delivered four years of deficits over $1 trillion, added $6 trillion to the debt and left unemployment at 7.9%, with real unemployment well over 10%. To add to that, under his watch America's credit rating was downgraded for the first time in history, not once, but twice.
What will a second Obama term look like? For at least 2 years Republicans have the House, so they can stop new regulations that would kill business, like another Obamacare type bill: Card Check for example.
But Obama will let the Bush tax cuts expire which means higher taxes, and despite his conciliatory tone in his victory speech he will not reach across the isle. And he will not cut spending, he had a chance to do that and didn't with the debt ceiling showdown. So we could see the debt reach $20-22 trillion in the next four years. We very well could see at least one more credit downgrade in the next four years.
There is also the possibility that a conservative justice could retire sending the courts far to the left.
On the international front countries like Russia and China will get whatever they want, even if it is catastrophic to our national security, and Iran may get its nukes.
The worst part of this is if the new turnout model is permanent it will have to get a whole lot worse for a Republican to win in 2016. America will be weaker economically and militarily. We may well see the beginning of the end of America as a superpower.
As polls declared Obama regaining momentum in the past few days many conservatives declared the polls were wrong, saying these they were based on flawed turnout models and that Romney would have at least a few more points than they declared. Some, like Dick Morris even said Romney would win in an electoral landslide.
But the polls were right, the turnout models were accurate and Romney could not reach 270 electoral votes.
So how did Obama win? It looks like Obama repeated the turnout model of 2008. If this model is permanent it bodes ill for the future of our nation.
In Obama's first term he delivered four years of deficits over $1 trillion, added $6 trillion to the debt and left unemployment at 7.9%, with real unemployment well over 10%. To add to that, under his watch America's credit rating was downgraded for the first time in history, not once, but twice.
What will a second Obama term look like? For at least 2 years Republicans have the House, so they can stop new regulations that would kill business, like another Obamacare type bill: Card Check for example.
But Obama will let the Bush tax cuts expire which means higher taxes, and despite his conciliatory tone in his victory speech he will not reach across the isle. And he will not cut spending, he had a chance to do that and didn't with the debt ceiling showdown. So we could see the debt reach $20-22 trillion in the next four years. We very well could see at least one more credit downgrade in the next four years.
There is also the possibility that a conservative justice could retire sending the courts far to the left.
On the international front countries like Russia and China will get whatever they want, even if it is catastrophic to our national security, and Iran may get its nukes.
The worst part of this is if the new turnout model is permanent it will have to get a whole lot worse for a Republican to win in 2016. America will be weaker economically and militarily. We may well see the beginning of the end of America as a superpower.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Final Election Day Predictions and Musings
This election has had many twists and turns, both candidates have had their ups and downs but tomorrow it's over. Romney has made his mistakes but he has run a pretty good campaign, and Obama's angry and small rhetoric feel like the desperate gasps of a losing campaign.
But after being behind for weeks after his dismal performance in the first debate momentum has returned to Obama. Romney's momentum was ending even before Hurricane Sandy but now Obama has the wind at his back. But I don't think it can be entirely be explained by the hurricane. He seems to have some unexplainable way of staying in this race despite his dismal presidency.
Obama's reckless spending added 6 trillion to the debt and we have four years of deficits over $1 trillion, America's credit rating has also been downgraded for the first time in history, and not just once, but twice. To add to that the economy is stuck hovering at just below 8% unemployment and real unemployment is well above 10%. But he is still in the race and I can't explain it.
Romney has done his best to expose the president's record and offer an alternative. He offers hope when Obama offers class-warfare and anger, and yet I believe Obama will ultimately win the election.
The President leads or ties in most polls narrowly, with outliers Gallup and Rasmussen giving Romney a 1-point lead. But state polls look dismal for Romney. Obama leads in Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, but some have him up in Virginia slightly. Some polls are putting Romney up in Florida, but even if he carrys it he needs more to win.
Romney will almost certainly carry all the McCain states, plus Indiana, most likely North Carolina, possibly Virginia and Florida but Ohio looks perpetually out of reach, although some polls have it close or tied. But even if he won them all he would still need another state, because he would be a few electoral votes shy of 270.
So my prediction is Obama narrowly wins both the popular vote and the electoral college, Democrats hold the Senate plus or minus a seat and Republicans hold the House. This bodes ill for bipartisanship, which the President Obama shows no interest in, but it will mean extreme far-left legislation like Card Check would go nowhere, and any attempt to push another Obamacare-like bill would never pass the House.
I could be wrong, the polls might be wrong and Romney could win, but I doubt it. If the polls are right and Obama wins it will mean that a conservative agenda even in the face of all the problems of Obama's presidency has been rejected. Could America have shifted to a center-right country to a liberal country without anyone knowing it? It's hard to say because polls also show Romney is still trusted more on economic issues and yet he is still behind.
And I can't explain it, I would be very interested to see the election post mortem for anwsers.
But after being behind for weeks after his dismal performance in the first debate momentum has returned to Obama. Romney's momentum was ending even before Hurricane Sandy but now Obama has the wind at his back. But I don't think it can be entirely be explained by the hurricane. He seems to have some unexplainable way of staying in this race despite his dismal presidency.
Obama's reckless spending added 6 trillion to the debt and we have four years of deficits over $1 trillion, America's credit rating has also been downgraded for the first time in history, and not just once, but twice. To add to that the economy is stuck hovering at just below 8% unemployment and real unemployment is well above 10%. But he is still in the race and I can't explain it.
Romney has done his best to expose the president's record and offer an alternative. He offers hope when Obama offers class-warfare and anger, and yet I believe Obama will ultimately win the election.
The President leads or ties in most polls narrowly, with outliers Gallup and Rasmussen giving Romney a 1-point lead. But state polls look dismal for Romney. Obama leads in Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, but some have him up in Virginia slightly. Some polls are putting Romney up in Florida, but even if he carrys it he needs more to win.
Romney will almost certainly carry all the McCain states, plus Indiana, most likely North Carolina, possibly Virginia and Florida but Ohio looks perpetually out of reach, although some polls have it close or tied. But even if he won them all he would still need another state, because he would be a few electoral votes shy of 270.
So my prediction is Obama narrowly wins both the popular vote and the electoral college, Democrats hold the Senate plus or minus a seat and Republicans hold the House. This bodes ill for bipartisanship, which the President Obama shows no interest in, but it will mean extreme far-left legislation like Card Check would go nowhere, and any attempt to push another Obamacare-like bill would never pass the House.
I could be wrong, the polls might be wrong and Romney could win, but I doubt it. If the polls are right and Obama wins it will mean that a conservative agenda even in the face of all the problems of Obama's presidency has been rejected. Could America have shifted to a center-right country to a liberal country without anyone knowing it? It's hard to say because polls also show Romney is still trusted more on economic issues and yet he is still behind.
And I can't explain it, I would be very interested to see the election post mortem for anwsers.
Saturday, August 18, 2012
One Week Later...
It has been one week since Romney names Paul Ryan as his running mate and here are my impressions. He is an incredible campaigner that has the potential to attract independent voters as well as some Democrats. He is charismatic and is an articulate spokesman for conservatism. He has given new energy not just to the Romney Campaign, but to Romney himself.
It is still early and neither side has been able to define Ryan. but whoever is successful in doing so will probably win in November. The Obama Campaign will try to paint Ryan as a radical who will destroy medicare to pay for tax cuts for the rich, something very far from the truth. The Romney Campaign will try to define Ryan as a conservative reformer trying to rein in big government. This is true, and Ryan has the battle scars to prove it. When the Democrats were in charge with huge majorities in 2009-10 he did try to reach out to Obama but was rebuffed and even singled out for attack at an event the President invited him to.
But the Romney/Ryan ticket does have some problems: they are short on specifics and seem to be unwilling to provide them.
What tax loopholes will they close? We don't need to know them all, but a couple would be nice. Is Ryan's medicare plan the same Romney will implement? I understand that even if it is Romney might want to tweak it around the edges but at least tell us that. What specifics do they have to start to bring down the deficit? We don't need to know everything but some specifics would help. End waste fraud and abuse? Great but we need more than that.
They have the potential to win big in November but they will need to be bolder, they will have to tread that careful minefield between bold and inspiring and radical without stepping over the line. But cautious will not give them a big victory, in fact it might just deny then victory.
There is reason for conservatives to be excited, but we will need more than just exciting campaigning and great speeches.
It is still early and neither side has been able to define Ryan. but whoever is successful in doing so will probably win in November. The Obama Campaign will try to paint Ryan as a radical who will destroy medicare to pay for tax cuts for the rich, something very far from the truth. The Romney Campaign will try to define Ryan as a conservative reformer trying to rein in big government. This is true, and Ryan has the battle scars to prove it. When the Democrats were in charge with huge majorities in 2009-10 he did try to reach out to Obama but was rebuffed and even singled out for attack at an event the President invited him to.
But the Romney/Ryan ticket does have some problems: they are short on specifics and seem to be unwilling to provide them.
What tax loopholes will they close? We don't need to know them all, but a couple would be nice. Is Ryan's medicare plan the same Romney will implement? I understand that even if it is Romney might want to tweak it around the edges but at least tell us that. What specifics do they have to start to bring down the deficit? We don't need to know everything but some specifics would help. End waste fraud and abuse? Great but we need more than that.
They have the potential to win big in November but they will need to be bolder, they will have to tread that careful minefield between bold and inspiring and radical without stepping over the line. But cautious will not give them a big victory, in fact it might just deny then victory.
There is reason for conservatives to be excited, but we will need more than just exciting campaigning and great speeches.
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Reality Check: The Bush Tax Cuts
The left rails against the Bush tax cuts for high income Americans but what they won't tell you is that letting them expire will only bring in $680 billion over the next 10 years: or about $68 billion a year. This number comes from liberals who want them to expire.
The deficit is well over $1 trillion dollars, $1.299 trillion in 2011 according to the Treasury department. So even if you let the Bush tax cuts expire you still have a deficit of over a trillion dollars. When does the rest come from? Do you honestly think the Democrats will agree to cut that much in spending? Moreover do you think they don't have new spending ideas that will eat up at least another $68 billion?
Letting the Bush tax cuts expire will go to new spending and we'll have taken even more money out of the private sector that could have gone to expanding businesses that would have given us jobs. Or worse, businesses will have to cut their workforce to pay for the new taxes Obama wants.
If the Democrats are serious about cutting the deficit let them bring up letting the tax cuts expire when the deficit is less than $68 billion.
The deficit is well over $1 trillion dollars, $1.299 trillion in 2011 according to the Treasury department. So even if you let the Bush tax cuts expire you still have a deficit of over a trillion dollars. When does the rest come from? Do you honestly think the Democrats will agree to cut that much in spending? Moreover do you think they don't have new spending ideas that will eat up at least another $68 billion?
Letting the Bush tax cuts expire will go to new spending and we'll have taken even more money out of the private sector that could have gone to expanding businesses that would have given us jobs. Or worse, businesses will have to cut their workforce to pay for the new taxes Obama wants.
If the Democrats are serious about cutting the deficit let them bring up letting the tax cuts expire when the deficit is less than $68 billion.
Saturday, August 11, 2012
Romney to Name VP Today
Late last night it was announced that Mitt Romney would name his running mate Saturday morning in Virginia at 9 AM Eastern (6 AM Pacific). Soon after that sources started to leak that it was Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan. More and more sources have come out to confirm this so it is almost certainly true, of course we won't be 100% certain until this morning.
Assuming it is Ryan this is an unquestionably bold pick that will be remembered as either pure genius or utter folly.
This choice will excite budget hawks who have decried deficits for years, but it will also excite the left who is opposed to any fiscal restraint. The attacks will be predictable and relentless: Romney/Ryan wants to throw seniors in the streets, they want to slash vital services for the poor, if they win old people will die because they won't get the medical services they need.
These attacks were going to come in one for or another anyway, but they will be more intense with Ryan on the ticket. So I can see the wisdom in choosing Ryan and facing the attacks head on. Romney and Ryan will have to be bold, not timid. They can't wince at the attacks coming. They need to defend the Ryan plan with all their energy and tell the voters why we need it.
Who wins this election will be determined by who is more effective in persuading the voters which vision is better for America: fiscal restraint, low taxes, and more regulation; or more spending, tax hikes and more regulation.
Romney's choice of Ryan will be a defining point of the campaign. It will be the choice that sealed his political defeat, or a choice that made his victory and his Presidency possible.
Assuming it is Ryan this is an unquestionably bold pick that will be remembered as either pure genius or utter folly.
This choice will excite budget hawks who have decried deficits for years, but it will also excite the left who is opposed to any fiscal restraint. The attacks will be predictable and relentless: Romney/Ryan wants to throw seniors in the streets, they want to slash vital services for the poor, if they win old people will die because they won't get the medical services they need.
These attacks were going to come in one for or another anyway, but they will be more intense with Ryan on the ticket. So I can see the wisdom in choosing Ryan and facing the attacks head on. Romney and Ryan will have to be bold, not timid. They can't wince at the attacks coming. They need to defend the Ryan plan with all their energy and tell the voters why we need it.
Who wins this election will be determined by who is more effective in persuading the voters which vision is better for America: fiscal restraint, low taxes, and more regulation; or more spending, tax hikes and more regulation.
Romney's choice of Ryan will be a defining point of the campaign. It will be the choice that sealed his political defeat, or a choice that made his victory and his Presidency possible.
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Attacks On Romney Taking Their Toll
The Obama campaign as well as his allies have been hammering Romney relentlessly on his record at Bain Capital; accusing him of being or at the very least strongly suggesting he is an out of touch venture capitalist pirate with no regard for any but the very rich and his own pocket.
The attacks have gone largely unanswered and this is taking a toll on Romney's image.
It is not too late yet, but if the Romney campaign does not come up with a good answer to these attacks the perceptions these ads are creating will solidify in the minds of the electorate making victory in November nearly impossible.
He needs to show the real story of his work at Bain, address the failures but stress the successes. Show not just companies that are thriving because of his work but workers who have jobs. Show men and women who themselves are living the American dream because they have a job with a company saved by Bain. There must be thousands of these stories. Pick a few of the most interesting and inspiring.
Further we need to hear more about Romney's record as governor and his management skills and how all of these will come into play if he becomes our next President.
It's not too late, but if the Romney campaign doesn't write a positive narrative of Romney the only story there will be is the Obama campaign's negative one.
The attacks have gone largely unanswered and this is taking a toll on Romney's image.
It is not too late yet, but if the Romney campaign does not come up with a good answer to these attacks the perceptions these ads are creating will solidify in the minds of the electorate making victory in November nearly impossible.
He needs to show the real story of his work at Bain, address the failures but stress the successes. Show not just companies that are thriving because of his work but workers who have jobs. Show men and women who themselves are living the American dream because they have a job with a company saved by Bain. There must be thousands of these stories. Pick a few of the most interesting and inspiring.
Further we need to hear more about Romney's record as governor and his management skills and how all of these will come into play if he becomes our next President.
It's not too late, but if the Romney campaign doesn't write a positive narrative of Romney the only story there will be is the Obama campaign's negative one.
Sunday, May 13, 2012
Romney's Electoral Path to Victory
Romney only needs 6 Obama states to win, or six states and the rest of another McCain lost part of in 2008:
1. Indiana- 11
2. North Carolina- 15
3. Virginia- 13
4. Florida- 29
5. Ohio- 18
And one of these:
6. Nevada- 6
6. Iowa- 6
McCain lost one district in Nebraska giving one of it's electoral votes to Obama.
If Romney wins all of Nebraska's electoral votes this year he can also win with the first five states plus New Hampshire, otherwise it would be a 269/269 tie in the electoral college.
1. Indiana (11)- This state is already considered gone for Obama.
2. North Carolina (15)- Obama won this state by .3% in 2008 at the height of Hope and Change, some polls have put it close with a narrow lead for Obama but he is unlikely to carry it again unless Romney stumbles badly.
3. Virginia (13)- For now Obama has a slight advantage but Romney has a good chance of carrying the state, but if Obama is reelected it could well come down to Virginia.
4. Florida (29)- Obama carried it by less than 3%, Obama and Romney are trading narrow leads but Obama is consistently under 50%. Romney has a good shot of winning it.
5. Ohio (18)- Obama carried it by less than 5% in 2008. The economy is bad there and Obama is under 50% with a small lead or trailing slightly. It will be tougher than Florida but it is winnable for Romney.
The Sixth State:
6a. Nevada (6)- Obama carried this state by 12.5% last time and has a small lead and is over 50% in most polls but unemployment is high in that state and has the potential to make that state competitive.
6b. Iowa (6)- In 2008 Obama carried the state by 9.5% but this year are split, some have Obama leading, others show a small lead for Romney.
6c. New Hampshire (4)- Obama took this state by 9.65% points in 2008 but just like Iowa polls this year are split, anywhere from +9 Obama to +2 Romney. For now I would say Obama has the advantage but that could change.
6d. Colorado (9)- This state was won by the President by 9% in 2008 and Obama has the lead in most if not all polls, for now the advantage is his but some of the polls have him under 50% so Romney's people best keep an eye on the possibility of taking it.
Longer Shots
6e. Wisconsin (10)- This was a 14-point win in 2008 but in 2010 Republicans defeated longtime Democratic Senator Russ Feingold, picked up the Governorship and won both houses of the state legislature. Democrats fought back hard against Republicans and came close to winning back the State Senate in recalls last year, Governor Scott Walker is now in the middle of a recall election of his own that will be decided June 5th. If he loses it will likely be a lost cause for Romney in November, if he wins handily it could well be a state Romney can win. For now however, Obama has the upper hand.
6f. Minnesota (10)- Like Wisconsin this state is slowly trending Republican. Obama won it by more than 10-points in 2008 but Republicans picked up both houses of the state legislature in 2010 and barely lost the governorship in a 3-way race where the conservative vote was divided. Obama is leading, but is below 50% in some polls. A prospect for Romney to win, but for now advantage Obama.
Obama's Firewall
First, ignore Indiana and North Carolina, since he is not going to win them anyway. Then to win re-election all Obama has to do is win Virginia, Ohio and one of the other states I mentioned, Colorado for example. If that were to happen Obama win have 278 votes in the Electoral College to Romney's 260, thus winning a 2nd term.
To make it brief, he who wins Virginia and Ohio has the best shot at victory.
1. Indiana- 11
2. North Carolina- 15
3. Virginia- 13
4. Florida- 29
5. Ohio- 18
And one of these:
6. Nevada- 6
6. Iowa- 6
McCain lost one district in Nebraska giving one of it's electoral votes to Obama.
If Romney wins all of Nebraska's electoral votes this year he can also win with the first five states plus New Hampshire, otherwise it would be a 269/269 tie in the electoral college.
1. Indiana (11)- This state is already considered gone for Obama.
2. North Carolina (15)- Obama won this state by .3% in 2008 at the height of Hope and Change, some polls have put it close with a narrow lead for Obama but he is unlikely to carry it again unless Romney stumbles badly.
3. Virginia (13)- For now Obama has a slight advantage but Romney has a good chance of carrying the state, but if Obama is reelected it could well come down to Virginia.
4. Florida (29)- Obama carried it by less than 3%, Obama and Romney are trading narrow leads but Obama is consistently under 50%. Romney has a good shot of winning it.
5. Ohio (18)- Obama carried it by less than 5% in 2008. The economy is bad there and Obama is under 50% with a small lead or trailing slightly. It will be tougher than Florida but it is winnable for Romney.
The Sixth State:
6a. Nevada (6)- Obama carried this state by 12.5% last time and has a small lead and is over 50% in most polls but unemployment is high in that state and has the potential to make that state competitive.
6b. Iowa (6)- In 2008 Obama carried the state by 9.5% but this year are split, some have Obama leading, others show a small lead for Romney.
6c. New Hampshire (4)- Obama took this state by 9.65% points in 2008 but just like Iowa polls this year are split, anywhere from +9 Obama to +2 Romney. For now I would say Obama has the advantage but that could change.
6d. Colorado (9)- This state was won by the President by 9% in 2008 and Obama has the lead in most if not all polls, for now the advantage is his but some of the polls have him under 50% so Romney's people best keep an eye on the possibility of taking it.
Longer Shots
6e. Wisconsin (10)- This was a 14-point win in 2008 but in 2010 Republicans defeated longtime Democratic Senator Russ Feingold, picked up the Governorship and won both houses of the state legislature. Democrats fought back hard against Republicans and came close to winning back the State Senate in recalls last year, Governor Scott Walker is now in the middle of a recall election of his own that will be decided June 5th. If he loses it will likely be a lost cause for Romney in November, if he wins handily it could well be a state Romney can win. For now however, Obama has the upper hand.
6f. Minnesota (10)- Like Wisconsin this state is slowly trending Republican. Obama won it by more than 10-points in 2008 but Republicans picked up both houses of the state legislature in 2010 and barely lost the governorship in a 3-way race where the conservative vote was divided. Obama is leading, but is below 50% in some polls. A prospect for Romney to win, but for now advantage Obama.
Obama's Firewall
First, ignore Indiana and North Carolina, since he is not going to win them anyway. Then to win re-election all Obama has to do is win Virginia, Ohio and one of the other states I mentioned, Colorado for example. If that were to happen Obama win have 278 votes in the Electoral College to Romney's 260, thus winning a 2nd term.
To make it brief, he who wins Virginia and Ohio has the best shot at victory.
Friday, May 4, 2012
Mitt has the Nomination All but Won, but if He Wins He Better Govern Like A Conservative
With Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich suspending their campaigns and some of Mitt Romney's rivals such as Michele Bachmann endorsing him it is safe to say Romney is the 2012 Republican Nominee for President. He may win in November, he may not.
If he wins he should be mindful of the Tea Party that is successfully defeating sitting Republican congressman and senators out in the primary with less than conservative records. In 2010 Utah Senator Bob Bennett was defeated, this year another Utah Senator has a race on his hands, Orrin Hatch. Hatch will probably win in the end but long time Indiana Senator Richard Lugar may not be so lucky. He is trailing Tea Party challenge and Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. A Mourdock victory will turn a safe Republican seat into a leaning or likely Republican seat but he is still favored to win.
This all leads to Romney and how he will govern if elected. He does not have to be a rigid ideologue to please the Tea Party as the left would have us believe, but he does have to significantly reduce the deficit and do his absolute best to get real reforms passed. Democrats will likely filibuster most reforms but Romney must try and try hard.
If the deficit is down, regulation is streamlined and conservative judges appointed he will have no contest for the Republican Nomination in 2016 if he wins in 2012. But if the deficit does not go down significantly, and no attempts at conservative reform are made there will be a primary in 2016 and he could lose.
If he wins he should be mindful of the Tea Party that is successfully defeating sitting Republican congressman and senators out in the primary with less than conservative records. In 2010 Utah Senator Bob Bennett was defeated, this year another Utah Senator has a race on his hands, Orrin Hatch. Hatch will probably win in the end but long time Indiana Senator Richard Lugar may not be so lucky. He is trailing Tea Party challenge and Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. A Mourdock victory will turn a safe Republican seat into a leaning or likely Republican seat but he is still favored to win.
This all leads to Romney and how he will govern if elected. He does not have to be a rigid ideologue to please the Tea Party as the left would have us believe, but he does have to significantly reduce the deficit and do his absolute best to get real reforms passed. Democrats will likely filibuster most reforms but Romney must try and try hard.
If the deficit is down, regulation is streamlined and conservative judges appointed he will have no contest for the Republican Nomination in 2016 if he wins in 2012. But if the deficit does not go down significantly, and no attempts at conservative reform are made there will be a primary in 2016 and he could lose.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
The GOP is in Serious Danger of Losing the Presidential Election
With Obama's approval rating now creeping up into the high 40s and a Republican Presidential Primary that could end up with a weak candidate, or just as bad, a brokered convention the once good chance of winning back the White House in 2012 is slipping away.
Newt Gingrich won Saturday's South Carolina Primary resoundingly in a stunning rebuke of former front runner Mitt Romney. And now Gingrich leads in Florida by double digits. And to add to that infighting and supporters for candidates loathing the opposition enough that they may not support the winner if their man isn't the Nominee are making President Obama's chances at a 2nd Term better every week.
If Gingrich nets several large states before once again falling, and Santorum does the same with Romney winning some states and showing upa strong second in others this could very well leave no candidate with a majority of delegates. This will lead to a brokered convention with candidates scrambling to make deals with rivals for delegates and a lot more bad blood than there is even now.
Furthermore the only one of the top three candidates, Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum who comes close to winning is Romney. Santorum will send independents away in droves with his heavy-handed social conservative rhetoric and Newt has enough baggage and a tendency for gaffes that will also hurt his chances if he wins the nomination.
Romney may not even win, but he has a chance. And he won't hurt House and Senate candidates down-ticket like the others. Republicans don't have long to fix the mess they are in, and the stakes couldn't be higher.
Newt Gingrich won Saturday's South Carolina Primary resoundingly in a stunning rebuke of former front runner Mitt Romney. And now Gingrich leads in Florida by double digits. And to add to that infighting and supporters for candidates loathing the opposition enough that they may not support the winner if their man isn't the Nominee are making President Obama's chances at a 2nd Term better every week.
If Gingrich nets several large states before once again falling, and Santorum does the same with Romney winning some states and showing upa strong second in others this could very well leave no candidate with a majority of delegates. This will lead to a brokered convention with candidates scrambling to make deals with rivals for delegates and a lot more bad blood than there is even now.
Furthermore the only one of the top three candidates, Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum who comes close to winning is Romney. Santorum will send independents away in droves with his heavy-handed social conservative rhetoric and Newt has enough baggage and a tendency for gaffes that will also hurt his chances if he wins the nomination.
Romney may not even win, but he has a chance. And he won't hurt House and Senate candidates down-ticket like the others. Republicans don't have long to fix the mess they are in, and the stakes couldn't be higher.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Why Can't Republicans Come Up With A Stronger Field?
With unemployment over 8.5% and a President that is out of touch ideologically with voters you would think this election would be a cake walk for Republicans. But it isn't.
President Obama either leads, is tied with, or at worst is slightly behind every single candidate on a regular basis, the only candidate in the top tier who leads him occasionally is Mitt Romney and the lead is not impressive. Generic Republican has lead the President more or less consistently but not any of these candidates. If only Generic Republican was the nominee the GOP would be set.
All the candidates are flawed to some extent. Mitt Romney has Romneycare to answer for as well as layoffs in companies he managed, and although he has been getting better at answering these charges he will be confronted with them in the General if he gets the nomination. You can count on that. Newt Gingrich has marital infidelity, taking money from Fannie and Freddie and numerous missteps in the past against him, including appearing in a climate change ad with Nancy Pelosi. He appears to be on the decline.
Santorum and Bachmann have no appeal with the center, which will absolutely be needed to win next year. Bachmann has only a few years experience in Washington, and several years of experience in each house the Minnesota legislature combined so she will likely suffer a stature problem in the General. And Santorum lost his last election in a landslide, that should make any Republican primary voter think twice about his chances of winning a national election against an entrenched incumbent.
Next we have Rick Perry, his poor debating skills, troublesome statements on illegal immigration and George W Bush like swagger (he was Bush's Lieutenant Governor in Texas) make his prospects against an above average debater like Obama in a country that still has a hangover from the Bush years less than appealing. And need anything be said about Ron Paul? The man has no chance at the nomination, he is over 70 years old and his foreign policy positions would likely trigger a 3rd party or independent run by conservatives if somehow over all the odds he managed to capture the nod.
The only other candidate than Romney who has a decent chance of winning is Jon Huntsman. But he is nowhere in the polls and some of his statements have angered conservatives. He also, unfairly I believe, loses points for being President Obama's Ambassador to China. This really shouldn't be counted against him, anyone who can offer service to his country or his President should if it doesn't violate his personal convictions.
It's too late for latecomers so we are stuck with this field. The only comfort is that the President is still unpopular and has been far below the critical 50% an incumbent should have to feel secure against Mitt Romney the still likely, although not inevitable Republican Nominee. Because the nominee will also have an affect on House and Senate races. A strong one will carry seats for Republicans over the top and a weak one will sink the prospects of candidates who might otherwise win.
President Obama either leads, is tied with, or at worst is slightly behind every single candidate on a regular basis, the only candidate in the top tier who leads him occasionally is Mitt Romney and the lead is not impressive. Generic Republican has lead the President more or less consistently but not any of these candidates. If only Generic Republican was the nominee the GOP would be set.
All the candidates are flawed to some extent. Mitt Romney has Romneycare to answer for as well as layoffs in companies he managed, and although he has been getting better at answering these charges he will be confronted with them in the General if he gets the nomination. You can count on that. Newt Gingrich has marital infidelity, taking money from Fannie and Freddie and numerous missteps in the past against him, including appearing in a climate change ad with Nancy Pelosi. He appears to be on the decline.
Santorum and Bachmann have no appeal with the center, which will absolutely be needed to win next year. Bachmann has only a few years experience in Washington, and several years of experience in each house the Minnesota legislature combined so she will likely suffer a stature problem in the General. And Santorum lost his last election in a landslide, that should make any Republican primary voter think twice about his chances of winning a national election against an entrenched incumbent.
Next we have Rick Perry, his poor debating skills, troublesome statements on illegal immigration and George W Bush like swagger (he was Bush's Lieutenant Governor in Texas) make his prospects against an above average debater like Obama in a country that still has a hangover from the Bush years less than appealing. And need anything be said about Ron Paul? The man has no chance at the nomination, he is over 70 years old and his foreign policy positions would likely trigger a 3rd party or independent run by conservatives if somehow over all the odds he managed to capture the nod.
The only other candidate than Romney who has a decent chance of winning is Jon Huntsman. But he is nowhere in the polls and some of his statements have angered conservatives. He also, unfairly I believe, loses points for being President Obama's Ambassador to China. This really shouldn't be counted against him, anyone who can offer service to his country or his President should if it doesn't violate his personal convictions.
It's too late for latecomers so we are stuck with this field. The only comfort is that the President is still unpopular and has been far below the critical 50% an incumbent should have to feel secure against Mitt Romney the still likely, although not inevitable Republican Nominee. Because the nominee will also have an affect on House and Senate races. A strong one will carry seats for Republicans over the top and a weak one will sink the prospects of candidates who might otherwise win.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Earthquake in Canada
Canada's May 2 Federal Election changed to landscape of Canadian politics is a big way.
Going in to the election things looked like this:
Conservatives: 143
Liberals: 77
NDP: 37
BQ: 47
Green: 0
With only 143 out of 308 seats in the House of Commons the Conservatives had a minority government. After the Liberal party leader, Michael Ignatieff, introduced a motion of no-confidence against the government it passed which triggered elections.
The led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper Conservatives won a majority government, the Liberals, a long entrenched institution in Canada was pushed back to a distant 3rd place losing not only their official opposition status but Ignatieff lost his own seat to a Conservative. The NDP, a hard left party sky-rocketed into 2nd place with their best ever showing in history by far. Many of the seats they won came at the expense of the BQ, Quebec's separatist party which was nearly wiped off the map completely. Like the Liberals, the BQ also lost the seat of their leader, Gilles Duceppe. But in this case he lost to an NDP candidate.
The new map looks like this.
Conservatives: 167
NDP: 102
Liberals: 34
BQ: 4
Green: 1
Whether or not the Liberals can recover is up for debate but the Bloc Quebecois is finished as a political force in Quebec. And the Conservatives will have at least four years to govern as a majority.
Going in to the election things looked like this:
Conservatives: 143
Liberals: 77
NDP: 37
BQ: 47
Green: 0
With only 143 out of 308 seats in the House of Commons the Conservatives had a minority government. After the Liberal party leader, Michael Ignatieff, introduced a motion of no-confidence against the government it passed which triggered elections.
The led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper Conservatives won a majority government, the Liberals, a long entrenched institution in Canada was pushed back to a distant 3rd place losing not only their official opposition status but Ignatieff lost his own seat to a Conservative. The NDP, a hard left party sky-rocketed into 2nd place with their best ever showing in history by far. Many of the seats they won came at the expense of the BQ, Quebec's separatist party which was nearly wiped off the map completely. Like the Liberals, the BQ also lost the seat of their leader, Gilles Duceppe. But in this case he lost to an NDP candidate.
The new map looks like this.
Conservatives: 167
NDP: 102
Liberals: 34
BQ: 4
Green: 1
Whether or not the Liberals can recover is up for debate but the Bloc Quebecois is finished as a political force in Quebec. And the Conservatives will have at least four years to govern as a majority.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Election 2010 Post Mortem
There is no other way to put this: last night's election was historic. Republicans picked up a minimum of 60 seats in the House of Representatives, the biggest pickup by a party since 1948.
House
Republicans will have a minimum of 239 seats but will likely end up with between 240 and 242 by the time all the races are called. The Democrats will have less than 200 members of the House for the first time since 1946.
So far, 49 incumbent Democrats have been defeated including 3 Committee Chairmen: James Oberstar (MN-8)- Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Ike Skelton (MO-4)- Armed Services Committee, and John Spratt (SC-5)- Budget Committee. Two Republicans incumbents were defeated, Charles Djou (HI-1), and Joseph Cao (LA-3).
Senate
The Senate was a more mixed picture. Republicans have picked up 6 seats so far while successfully defending all of their own. The GOP picked up open seats in Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. But failed to pick open seats in Connecticut, Delaware, and West Virginia. Two Democratic incumbents were knocked off, Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas by a landslide, and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin by a narrow but comfortable margin. Targeted Democrats survived in California, Colorado, and Nevada. Washington has yet to be called but the Democrat is leading by 1-2 percent.
Alaska has also yet to be called with Lisa Murkowski apparently leading by 6-7 points in a write-in campaign over Tea Party candidate Joe Miller. Since Democrat Scott McAdams will finish in 3rd place and both Miller and Murkowski have vowed to caucus with Republicans that seat can safely be called a Republican hold.
Governorships
Republican now have the majority of governorships after the 2010 Elections. The have captured state houses from Democrats in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Races in Oregon and Illinois have yet to be called but Democrats are leading in both.
Democrats took California, and Hawaii from the GOP but are leading in Minnesota and Connecticut as well, although some outlets have already called Connecticut for the Democrats already. Republicans have also lost Rhode Island to independent candidate Lincoln Chafee, a former Republican Senator.
State Legislatures
Democrats came into the election with a significant advantage but so far have lost 18 state legislatures: Alabama House and Senate, Indiana House, Iowa House, Maine House and Senate, Michigan House, Minnesota House and Senate, Montana House (which was 50/50 before), New Hampshire Senate, New York Senate, North Carolina House and Senate, Ohio House, Pennsylvania House, and the Wisconsin House and Senate. The Oregon House which was under firm Democratic control before the election is now split 30/30.
The winning of the House of Representatives by Republicans and the severely narrowed Democratic majority in the Senate will put a very effective block on any left-wing legislation that President Obama may wish to pass, and the pick ups in Governorships and state legislatures bodes well for Republicans in the upcoming redistricting that will reshape the electoral map.
Tea Party
Tea Party energy is what is primarily what made the gains Republicans won possible, but they have a mixed record of success in the Senate: Marco Rubio and Rand Paul won big victories in Republican seats, and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania won seats previously held by Democrats. But Sharon Angle was defeated by Harry Reid by 5 points in Nevada and Ken Buck lost to Michael Bennett in Colorado, and O'Donnell cost Republicans a sure victory in Delaware and Joe Miller appears headed for defeat in Alaska to moderate Republican Lisa Murkowski.
Toomey, and Rubio proved strong conservatives can win swing states and nominal blue states, but the Tea Party defeats also prove that the Tea Party must be more careful to nominate credible candidates.
House
Republicans will have a minimum of 239 seats but will likely end up with between 240 and 242 by the time all the races are called. The Democrats will have less than 200 members of the House for the first time since 1946.
So far, 49 incumbent Democrats have been defeated including 3 Committee Chairmen: James Oberstar (MN-8)- Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Ike Skelton (MO-4)- Armed Services Committee, and John Spratt (SC-5)- Budget Committee. Two Republicans incumbents were defeated, Charles Djou (HI-1), and Joseph Cao (LA-3).
Senate
The Senate was a more mixed picture. Republicans have picked up 6 seats so far while successfully defending all of their own. The GOP picked up open seats in Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. But failed to pick open seats in Connecticut, Delaware, and West Virginia. Two Democratic incumbents were knocked off, Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas by a landslide, and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin by a narrow but comfortable margin. Targeted Democrats survived in California, Colorado, and Nevada. Washington has yet to be called but the Democrat is leading by 1-2 percent.
Alaska has also yet to be called with Lisa Murkowski apparently leading by 6-7 points in a write-in campaign over Tea Party candidate Joe Miller. Since Democrat Scott McAdams will finish in 3rd place and both Miller and Murkowski have vowed to caucus with Republicans that seat can safely be called a Republican hold.
Governorships
Republican now have the majority of governorships after the 2010 Elections. The have captured state houses from Democrats in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Races in Oregon and Illinois have yet to be called but Democrats are leading in both.
Democrats took California, and Hawaii from the GOP but are leading in Minnesota and Connecticut as well, although some outlets have already called Connecticut for the Democrats already. Republicans have also lost Rhode Island to independent candidate Lincoln Chafee, a former Republican Senator.
State Legislatures
Democrats came into the election with a significant advantage but so far have lost 18 state legislatures: Alabama House and Senate, Indiana House, Iowa House, Maine House and Senate, Michigan House, Minnesota House and Senate, Montana House (which was 50/50 before), New Hampshire Senate, New York Senate, North Carolina House and Senate, Ohio House, Pennsylvania House, and the Wisconsin House and Senate. The Oregon House which was under firm Democratic control before the election is now split 30/30.
The winning of the House of Representatives by Republicans and the severely narrowed Democratic majority in the Senate will put a very effective block on any left-wing legislation that President Obama may wish to pass, and the pick ups in Governorships and state legislatures bodes well for Republicans in the upcoming redistricting that will reshape the electoral map.
Tea Party
Tea Party energy is what is primarily what made the gains Republicans won possible, but they have a mixed record of success in the Senate: Marco Rubio and Rand Paul won big victories in Republican seats, and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania won seats previously held by Democrats. But Sharon Angle was defeated by Harry Reid by 5 points in Nevada and Ken Buck lost to Michael Bennett in Colorado, and O'Donnell cost Republicans a sure victory in Delaware and Joe Miller appears headed for defeat in Alaska to moderate Republican Lisa Murkowski.
Toomey, and Rubio proved strong conservatives can win swing states and nominal blue states, but the Tea Party defeats also prove that the Tea Party must be more careful to nominate credible candidates.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Predictions: 2010 Elections 10/31/10
The election is just 2 days away and Republicans are poised to take control of at least one chamber of congress. Some Governor and Senate races are beginning to tighten as House races are generally headed in the direction of Republicans.
I predict a 60 or so net pick up for Republicans in the House, giving them control by at least a 20 seat margin. Although there are far more seats in play I think that some of these seats will in the end send the Democrat back to Washington, albeit narrowly which will make them think twice about voting party line with the left.
The Senate could go Republican, but in the end I don't think it will. Connecticut is now a near lost hope for Republicans, as is Delaware. However, Arkansas, North Dakota, and Indiana are lost for Democrats. Wisconsin is almost as hopeless for the Dems. That's 4. But several tossups look to make election night interesting: Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Illinois, West Virginia, Washington, and California are all considered tossups.
Among those Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Colorado seem headed for the Republican column. Illinois looks slightly tilted Republican as well, but not as much. It is also unknown is the Democratic candidate will receive a bounce from last minute campaigning by President Obama, who is still popular in that state. If those seats go Republican that will be a pick up of 8.
In West Virginia Manchin is headed up in the polls, the most Recent Rasmussen poll has him up 49-46% over his Republican opponent.
Washington is neck and neck between Democrat Senator Murray and Republican challenger Rossi. But this state is Blue by nature so the edge has to go to Murray. Finally in California, 3-term Senator Barbara Boxer is within the margin of error ahead of Businesswoman Carly Fiorina. Boxer has been consistently ahead, but also, consistently under 50%, a danger for any incumbent. I wouldn't rule out an upset for any of these races, but odds are at least two, if not all three of them, will stay Democratic.
I'd say Republicans will pick up 7-9 seats in the Senate.
37 Governorships are up this year and Republicans stand to pick up several. Rasmussen has Republicans picking up Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming for sure. Illinois, and Pennsylvania are also leaning that way. That is 11 seats.
Ohio, Oregon, and Massachusetts, all Democrat seats, are tossups, but Ohio does look like it will go Republican. Rhode Island is a 3-way race with the Republican a distant 3rd in every poll so that seat will either go independent or Democrat. Hawaii had been a near certain Democrat pick up but recent tightening in polls have shown a close race. However other, newer polls have shown former Democratic congressman Neil Abercrombie pulling ahead once again of Lt Governor Duke Aiona. When this election is over I expect Republicans to have between 31 and 33 governorships.
My Predictions:
House- About +60 GOP (239 House seats)
Senate- +7-9 GOP (48-50 Senate seats)
Governorships- +7-9 GOP (31-33 Governorships)
A larger than expected Republican turnout could mean even greater gains than expected, just like last minute liberal enthusiasm could reduce expected gains.
Check out these sites for the latest on the Election:
Rasmussen Reports
Real Clear Politics
I predict a 60 or so net pick up for Republicans in the House, giving them control by at least a 20 seat margin. Although there are far more seats in play I think that some of these seats will in the end send the Democrat back to Washington, albeit narrowly which will make them think twice about voting party line with the left.
The Senate could go Republican, but in the end I don't think it will. Connecticut is now a near lost hope for Republicans, as is Delaware. However, Arkansas, North Dakota, and Indiana are lost for Democrats. Wisconsin is almost as hopeless for the Dems. That's 4. But several tossups look to make election night interesting: Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Illinois, West Virginia, Washington, and California are all considered tossups.
Among those Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Colorado seem headed for the Republican column. Illinois looks slightly tilted Republican as well, but not as much. It is also unknown is the Democratic candidate will receive a bounce from last minute campaigning by President Obama, who is still popular in that state. If those seats go Republican that will be a pick up of 8.
In West Virginia Manchin is headed up in the polls, the most Recent Rasmussen poll has him up 49-46% over his Republican opponent.
Washington is neck and neck between Democrat Senator Murray and Republican challenger Rossi. But this state is Blue by nature so the edge has to go to Murray. Finally in California, 3-term Senator Barbara Boxer is within the margin of error ahead of Businesswoman Carly Fiorina. Boxer has been consistently ahead, but also, consistently under 50%, a danger for any incumbent. I wouldn't rule out an upset for any of these races, but odds are at least two, if not all three of them, will stay Democratic.
I'd say Republicans will pick up 7-9 seats in the Senate.
37 Governorships are up this year and Republicans stand to pick up several. Rasmussen has Republicans picking up Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming for sure. Illinois, and Pennsylvania are also leaning that way. That is 11 seats.
Ohio, Oregon, and Massachusetts, all Democrat seats, are tossups, but Ohio does look like it will go Republican. Rhode Island is a 3-way race with the Republican a distant 3rd in every poll so that seat will either go independent or Democrat. Hawaii had been a near certain Democrat pick up but recent tightening in polls have shown a close race. However other, newer polls have shown former Democratic congressman Neil Abercrombie pulling ahead once again of Lt Governor Duke Aiona. When this election is over I expect Republicans to have between 31 and 33 governorships.
My Predictions:
House- About +60 GOP (239 House seats)
Senate- +7-9 GOP (48-50 Senate seats)
Governorships- +7-9 GOP (31-33 Governorships)
A larger than expected Republican turnout could mean even greater gains than expected, just like last minute liberal enthusiasm could reduce expected gains.
Check out these sites for the latest on the Election:
Rasmussen Reports
Real Clear Politics
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Senate 2010 Predictions 9/30
As of today all Republican held seats seem safe. But Rasmussen has 3 Democratic seats currently rated Sold GOP: Arkansas, Indiana, and North Dakota. Also, three others are rated Lean GOP: Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. With those seats alone Republicans would gain six seats. Illinois is and has been even for some time, and Nevada and Washington have drifted between even and a slight lead for the incumbent. Finally West Virginia has become even recently as the race has become nationalized.
If I were to guess I would say Republicans would pick up: Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and West Virginia. That's 7.
They will also pick up at least one, but possibly two or three of the following: Illinois, Washington, and Nevada. That's 8-10 seats.
My prediction: A 9 seat gain for Republicans. That would give us a 50/50 Senate with the two independents siding with the Democrats and Vice President Biden breaking the tie.
You can take a closer look at the polls I made my predictions from at:
Rasmussen: Senate Balance of Power
If I were to guess I would say Republicans would pick up: Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and West Virginia. That's 7.
They will also pick up at least one, but possibly two or three of the following: Illinois, Washington, and Nevada. That's 8-10 seats.
My prediction: A 9 seat gain for Republicans. That would give us a 50/50 Senate with the two independents siding with the Democrats and Vice President Biden breaking the tie.
You can take a closer look at the polls I made my predictions from at:
Rasmussen: Senate Balance of Power
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Answering a Liberal Strawman: Should Republicans move to the right or be more inclusive?
Should Republicans move to the right or be more inclusive?
This question is a strawman posed by liberals who are insinuating that being
conservative is somehow the antithesis of being inclusive, but it does raise
interesting issues.
Should Republicans move to the right? Absolutely, Republicans have betrayed
economic conservatism since the late 90s and simply embraced a milder form of liberalism on economic issues than the Democrats. This is one of the reasons they are in the minority right now. Republicans need to stand firm on smaller government and lower taxes.
They also need to stand firm on the war on terror, the 2nd amendment and
securing the border. The people are with Republicans on these issues.
Now, should Republicans be inclusive? Republicans already are inclusive. The
media and entertainment industries have basically been peddling the left's
propaganda of the 'bigoted conservative' to push people into the Democratic
party because they know they can't win by selling a socialist agenda.
Conservatives are not anti-Hispanic, they are just opposed to illegal
immigration. They are not even anti-gay, it is just that most are opposed to
same-sex marriage, a position that the majority of Americans hold.
If you were to ask a gay conservative, who do you get more hostility from,
straight conservatives when they learn you are gay or gay liberals when they
learn you're conservative, the answer is almost always from gay liberals when
they learn you're conservative. It is the left that is intolerant.
Maybe we should ask the Democrats, if they want to continue to move to the left
or be more inclusive. They sure can't tolerate any dissent, judging by their
reactions to the tea parties, and the fact that many of them want to stifle free
speech under the guise of the 'Fairness Doctrine.'
Standing for smaller government and lower taxes is not being exclusionary. We let the left push us in their direction for their benefit and it has to stop. This does not mean we become as rigidly ideological and narrow-minded as they are, but it does mean acting on our principles. Smaller government, lower taxes, more freedom. These are principles to proclaim proudly, sure we should allow a diversity of viewpoints into the party, but not to the point to where the party stands for nothing but itself and itself alone. Be bold. Be conservative. And don't apologize for it.
This question is a strawman posed by liberals who are insinuating that being
conservative is somehow the antithesis of being inclusive, but it does raise
interesting issues.
Should Republicans move to the right? Absolutely, Republicans have betrayed
economic conservatism since the late 90s and simply embraced a milder form of liberalism on economic issues than the Democrats. This is one of the reasons they are in the minority right now. Republicans need to stand firm on smaller government and lower taxes.
They also need to stand firm on the war on terror, the 2nd amendment and
securing the border. The people are with Republicans on these issues.
Now, should Republicans be inclusive? Republicans already are inclusive. The
media and entertainment industries have basically been peddling the left's
propaganda of the 'bigoted conservative' to push people into the Democratic
party because they know they can't win by selling a socialist agenda.
Conservatives are not anti-Hispanic, they are just opposed to illegal
immigration. They are not even anti-gay, it is just that most are opposed to
same-sex marriage, a position that the majority of Americans hold.
If you were to ask a gay conservative, who do you get more hostility from,
straight conservatives when they learn you are gay or gay liberals when they
learn you're conservative, the answer is almost always from gay liberals when
they learn you're conservative. It is the left that is intolerant.
Maybe we should ask the Democrats, if they want to continue to move to the left
or be more inclusive. They sure can't tolerate any dissent, judging by their
reactions to the tea parties, and the fact that many of them want to stifle free
speech under the guise of the 'Fairness Doctrine.'
Standing for smaller government and lower taxes is not being exclusionary. We let the left push us in their direction for their benefit and it has to stop. This does not mean we become as rigidly ideological and narrow-minded as they are, but it does mean acting on our principles. Smaller government, lower taxes, more freedom. These are principles to proclaim proudly, sure we should allow a diversity of viewpoints into the party, but not to the point to where the party stands for nothing but itself and itself alone. Be bold. Be conservative. And don't apologize for it.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Specter Did Republicans A Favor
While there is no doubt his move to the Democratic party was purely self
serving, he even admitted it himself, he may have inadvertently done Republicans
a favor. Once the Minnesota race is resolved, sadly it is almost certain to go to
supposed comedian Al Franken, the Democrats will have 60 seats and no excuses in
2010.
It also rids the Republicans of a bloody primary battle that would have been needed to oust Specter in the 2010 Pennsylvania primary. Republicans can now nominate a real Republican, either Pat Toomey or former governor Tom Ridge.
I have literally no harsh feelings that Specter switched parties because he wasn't much of a Republican in the first place, his voting record is left of center and when he was needed to stop the stimulus he actually supported it. He even voted against the Iraq war, which shows that isn't even there on terror issues. Although he isn't far left, his voting record is less than 45% conservative according to the American Conservative Union.
Anyone who has read my blog knows I am not a rigid ideologue. I don't agree with Republicans on everything, and am willing to say so when I think they are wrong, but the party has not drifted too far to the right, especially on economic issues where Republicans have betrayed their base time and again. Republicans have not been conservative enough. If Republicans want a chance at governing again they will need to have a bold conservative vision of less government and more freedom. And let's face it Arlen Specter would never support such a vision.
serving, he even admitted it himself, he may have inadvertently done Republicans
a favor. Once the Minnesota race is resolved, sadly it is almost certain to go to
supposed comedian Al Franken, the Democrats will have 60 seats and no excuses in
2010.
It also rids the Republicans of a bloody primary battle that would have been needed to oust Specter in the 2010 Pennsylvania primary. Republicans can now nominate a real Republican, either Pat Toomey or former governor Tom Ridge.
I have literally no harsh feelings that Specter switched parties because he wasn't much of a Republican in the first place, his voting record is left of center and when he was needed to stop the stimulus he actually supported it. He even voted against the Iraq war, which shows that isn't even there on terror issues. Although he isn't far left, his voting record is less than 45% conservative according to the American Conservative Union.
Anyone who has read my blog knows I am not a rigid ideologue. I don't agree with Republicans on everything, and am willing to say so when I think they are wrong, but the party has not drifted too far to the right, especially on economic issues where Republicans have betrayed their base time and again. Republicans have not been conservative enough. If Republicans want a chance at governing again they will need to have a bold conservative vision of less government and more freedom. And let's face it Arlen Specter would never support such a vision.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Obama wins, Dems Expand Majorities in House and Senate: Total Liberal Control
On November 4 Barrack Obama won the Presidency with what looks like 52% of the vote, Democrats have picked at least 21 seats in the House defeating several incumbents, while only 4 Democratic incumbents were defeated, and one of them was involved in multiple sex scandals. The result in the Senate was just as bleak for the Republicans, they lost 6 seats so far with 3 more to close to call. If all those seats are called for the Democrats they will have 60 seats in the Senate, giving them a super-majority that can kill filibusters.
Long term realignment trends look bad as well, Obama won both Virginia and Colorado which have been trending Democrat for a while and seem to be slightly Democratic now. These 2 states alone push the electoral map below the needed 270 for the Republicans, to win the Presidency again Republicans will have to either win back these states, or turn other blue states red. In congress with the defeat of moderate Connecticut congressman Chris Shays Republicans in the House have been shut of New England Entirely.
On January 20 of next year the Presidency, House of Representatives, and the Senate will all be controlled by partisan, left-wing ideologues who will steer this country far to the left of what the public wants. Conservatives need to lay the ground work for a comeback today to retake congress in 2010, and the White House in 2012. Conservatives need to find a way to control the conversation of political dialogue, as the Democrats did this year, and get even blue states to take a second look at Conservatism.
Conservatives have the public on their side on many issues: taxes, drilling, nuclear power, a secret ballot for union members, and controlling spending to name a few. Republicans can't be pale imitations of the Democrats, but they also cannot be hard-core ideologues who shut out differing points of view. A balance must be struck and it must be struck soon. New strategy is badly needed, and we must be ready for 2010 today.
Long term realignment trends look bad as well, Obama won both Virginia and Colorado which have been trending Democrat for a while and seem to be slightly Democratic now. These 2 states alone push the electoral map below the needed 270 for the Republicans, to win the Presidency again Republicans will have to either win back these states, or turn other blue states red. In congress with the defeat of moderate Connecticut congressman Chris Shays Republicans in the House have been shut of New England Entirely.
On January 20 of next year the Presidency, House of Representatives, and the Senate will all be controlled by partisan, left-wing ideologues who will steer this country far to the left of what the public wants. Conservatives need to lay the ground work for a comeback today to retake congress in 2010, and the White House in 2012. Conservatives need to find a way to control the conversation of political dialogue, as the Democrats did this year, and get even blue states to take a second look at Conservatism.
Conservatives have the public on their side on many issues: taxes, drilling, nuclear power, a secret ballot for union members, and controlling spending to name a few. Republicans can't be pale imitations of the Democrats, but they also cannot be hard-core ideologues who shut out differing points of view. A balance must be struck and it must be struck soon. New strategy is badly needed, and we must be ready for 2010 today.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Conservatives Win in Canada
The Conservative government in Canada won again on Tuesday's election. The Conservative Party led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper picked up close to 20 seats, but fell short of the majority they were hoping for; winning 143 out of 308 seats. The Liberal Party led by Stéphane Dion lost 27 seats, ending up with a mere 76 seats. In third place the Bloc Party, a party devoted to Quebec Independence, won 50 seats, one short of last time. The New Democratic Party, a harder line left party than the Liberals, led by Jack Layton won 37 seats, 8 up from before the election.
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