Monday, December 19, 2011

Kim Jong-il is Dead

I have no idea what this means for North Korea let alone the world. Likely his son and successor Kim Jong-un will carry on the totalitarian polices of the ghastly regime. I would love to be proven wrong in this, even some progress toward freedom is better than none, but I'm not holding my breath.

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Why Can't Republicans Come Up With A Stronger Field?

With unemployment over 8.5% and a President that is out of touch ideologically with voters you would think this election would be a cake walk for Republicans. But it isn't.
President Obama either leads, is tied with, or at worst is slightly behind every single candidate on a regular basis, the only candidate in the top tier who leads him occasionally is Mitt Romney and the lead is not impressive. Generic Republican has lead the President more or less consistently but not any of these candidates. If only Generic Republican was the nominee the GOP would be set.
All the candidates are flawed to some extent. Mitt Romney has Romneycare to answer for as well as layoffs in companies he managed, and although he has been getting better at answering these charges he will be confronted with them in the General if he gets the nomination. You can count on that. Newt Gingrich has marital infidelity, taking money from Fannie and Freddie and numerous missteps in the past against him, including appearing in a climate change ad with Nancy Pelosi. He appears to be on the decline.
Santorum and Bachmann have no appeal with the center, which will absolutely be needed to win next year. Bachmann has only a few years experience in Washington, and several years of experience in each house the Minnesota legislature combined so she will likely suffer a stature problem in the General. And Santorum lost his last election in a landslide, that should make any Republican primary voter think twice about his chances of winning a national election against an entrenched incumbent.
Next we have Rick Perry, his poor debating skills, troublesome statements on illegal immigration and George W Bush like swagger (he was Bush's Lieutenant Governor in Texas) make his prospects against an above average debater like Obama in a country that still has a hangover from the Bush years less than appealing. And need anything be said about Ron Paul? The man has no chance at the nomination, he is over 70 years old and his foreign policy positions would likely trigger a 3rd party or independent run by conservatives if somehow over all the odds he managed to capture the nod.
The only other candidate than Romney who has a decent chance of winning is Jon Huntsman. But he is nowhere in the polls and some of his statements have angered conservatives. He also, unfairly I believe, loses points for being President Obama's Ambassador to China. This really shouldn't be counted against him, anyone who can offer service to his country or his President should if it doesn't violate his personal convictions.
It's too late for latecomers so we are stuck with this field. The only comfort is that the President is still unpopular and has been far below the critical 50% an incumbent should have to feel secure against Mitt Romney the still likely, although not inevitable Republican Nominee. Because the nominee will also have an affect on House and Senate races. A strong one will carry seats for Republicans over the top and a weak one will sink the prospects of candidates who might otherwise win.