Romney's Electoral Path to Victory

Romney only needs 6 Obama states to win, or six states and the rest of another McCain lost part of in 2008:
1. Indiana- 11
2. North Carolina- 15
3. Virginia- 13
4. Florida- 29
5. Ohio- 18
And one of these:
6. Nevada- 6
6. Iowa- 6
McCain lost one district in Nebraska giving one of it's electoral votes to Obama.
If Romney wins all of Nebraska's electoral votes this year he can also win with the first five states plus New Hampshire, otherwise it would be a 269/269 tie in the electoral college.

1. Indiana (11)- This state is already considered gone for Obama.
2. North Carolina (15)- Obama won this state by .3% in 2008 at the height of Hope and Change, some polls have put it close with a narrow lead for Obama but he is unlikely to carry it again unless Romney stumbles badly.
3. Virginia (13)- For now Obama has a slight advantage but Romney has a good chance of carrying the state, but if Obama is reelected it could well come down to Virginia.
4. Florida (29)- Obama carried it by less than 3%, Obama and Romney are trading narrow leads but Obama is consistently under 50%. Romney has a good shot of winning it.
5. Ohio (18)- Obama carried it by less than 5% in 2008. The economy is bad there and Obama is under 50% with a small lead or trailing slightly. It will be tougher than Florida but it is winnable for Romney.

The Sixth State:
6a. Nevada (6)- Obama carried this state by 12.5% last time and has a small lead and is over 50% in most polls but unemployment is high in that state and has the potential to make that state competitive.

6b. Iowa (6)- In 2008 Obama carried the state by 9.5% but this year are split, some have Obama leading, others show a small lead for Romney.

6c. New Hampshire (4)- Obama took this state by 9.65% points in 2008 but just like Iowa polls this year are split, anywhere from +9 Obama to +2 Romney. For now I would say Obama has the advantage but that could change.

6d. Colorado (9)- This state was won by the President by 9% in 2008 and Obama has the lead in most if not all polls, for now the advantage is his but some of the polls have him under 50% so Romney's people best keep an eye on the possibility of taking it.

Longer Shots
6e. Wisconsin (10)- This was a 14-point win in 2008 but in 2010 Republicans defeated longtime Democratic Senator Russ Feingold, picked up the Governorship and won both houses of the state legislature. Democrats fought back hard against Republicans and came close to winning back the State Senate in recalls last year, Governor Scott Walker is now in the middle of a recall election of his own that will be decided June 5th. If he loses it will likely be a lost cause for Romney in November, if he wins handily it could well be a state Romney can win. For now however, Obama has the upper hand.

6f. Minnesota (10)- Like Wisconsin this state is slowly trending Republican. Obama won it by more than 10-points in 2008 but Republicans picked up both houses of the state legislature in 2010 and barely lost the governorship in a 3-way race where the conservative vote was divided. Obama is leading, but is below 50% in some polls. A prospect for Romney to win, but for now advantage Obama.

Obama's Firewall
First, ignore Indiana and North Carolina, since he is not going to win them anyway. Then to win re-election all Obama has to do is win Virginia, Ohio and one of the other states I mentioned, Colorado for example. If that were to happen Obama win have 278 votes in the Electoral College to Romney's 260, thus winning a 2nd term.

To make it brief, he who wins Virginia and Ohio has the best shot at victory.