Monday, December 19, 2011
Kim Jong-il is Dead
I have no idea what this means for North Korea let alone the world. Likely his son and successor Kim Jong-un will carry on the totalitarian polices of the ghastly regime. I would love to be proven wrong in this, even some progress toward freedom is better than none, but I'm not holding my breath.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Why Can't Republicans Come Up With A Stronger Field?
With unemployment over 8.5% and a President that is out of touch ideologically with voters you would think this election would be a cake walk for Republicans. But it isn't.
President Obama either leads, is tied with, or at worst is slightly behind every single candidate on a regular basis, the only candidate in the top tier who leads him occasionally is Mitt Romney and the lead is not impressive. Generic Republican has lead the President more or less consistently but not any of these candidates. If only Generic Republican was the nominee the GOP would be set.
All the candidates are flawed to some extent. Mitt Romney has Romneycare to answer for as well as layoffs in companies he managed, and although he has been getting better at answering these charges he will be confronted with them in the General if he gets the nomination. You can count on that. Newt Gingrich has marital infidelity, taking money from Fannie and Freddie and numerous missteps in the past against him, including appearing in a climate change ad with Nancy Pelosi. He appears to be on the decline.
Santorum and Bachmann have no appeal with the center, which will absolutely be needed to win next year. Bachmann has only a few years experience in Washington, and several years of experience in each house the Minnesota legislature combined so she will likely suffer a stature problem in the General. And Santorum lost his last election in a landslide, that should make any Republican primary voter think twice about his chances of winning a national election against an entrenched incumbent.
Next we have Rick Perry, his poor debating skills, troublesome statements on illegal immigration and George W Bush like swagger (he was Bush's Lieutenant Governor in Texas) make his prospects against an above average debater like Obama in a country that still has a hangover from the Bush years less than appealing. And need anything be said about Ron Paul? The man has no chance at the nomination, he is over 70 years old and his foreign policy positions would likely trigger a 3rd party or independent run by conservatives if somehow over all the odds he managed to capture the nod.
The only other candidate than Romney who has a decent chance of winning is Jon Huntsman. But he is nowhere in the polls and some of his statements have angered conservatives. He also, unfairly I believe, loses points for being President Obama's Ambassador to China. This really shouldn't be counted against him, anyone who can offer service to his country or his President should if it doesn't violate his personal convictions.
It's too late for latecomers so we are stuck with this field. The only comfort is that the President is still unpopular and has been far below the critical 50% an incumbent should have to feel secure against Mitt Romney the still likely, although not inevitable Republican Nominee. Because the nominee will also have an affect on House and Senate races. A strong one will carry seats for Republicans over the top and a weak one will sink the prospects of candidates who might otherwise win.
President Obama either leads, is tied with, or at worst is slightly behind every single candidate on a regular basis, the only candidate in the top tier who leads him occasionally is Mitt Romney and the lead is not impressive. Generic Republican has lead the President more or less consistently but not any of these candidates. If only Generic Republican was the nominee the GOP would be set.
All the candidates are flawed to some extent. Mitt Romney has Romneycare to answer for as well as layoffs in companies he managed, and although he has been getting better at answering these charges he will be confronted with them in the General if he gets the nomination. You can count on that. Newt Gingrich has marital infidelity, taking money from Fannie and Freddie and numerous missteps in the past against him, including appearing in a climate change ad with Nancy Pelosi. He appears to be on the decline.
Santorum and Bachmann have no appeal with the center, which will absolutely be needed to win next year. Bachmann has only a few years experience in Washington, and several years of experience in each house the Minnesota legislature combined so she will likely suffer a stature problem in the General. And Santorum lost his last election in a landslide, that should make any Republican primary voter think twice about his chances of winning a national election against an entrenched incumbent.
Next we have Rick Perry, his poor debating skills, troublesome statements on illegal immigration and George W Bush like swagger (he was Bush's Lieutenant Governor in Texas) make his prospects against an above average debater like Obama in a country that still has a hangover from the Bush years less than appealing. And need anything be said about Ron Paul? The man has no chance at the nomination, he is over 70 years old and his foreign policy positions would likely trigger a 3rd party or independent run by conservatives if somehow over all the odds he managed to capture the nod.
The only other candidate than Romney who has a decent chance of winning is Jon Huntsman. But he is nowhere in the polls and some of his statements have angered conservatives. He also, unfairly I believe, loses points for being President Obama's Ambassador to China. This really shouldn't be counted against him, anyone who can offer service to his country or his President should if it doesn't violate his personal convictions.
It's too late for latecomers so we are stuck with this field. The only comfort is that the President is still unpopular and has been far below the critical 50% an incumbent should have to feel secure against Mitt Romney the still likely, although not inevitable Republican Nominee. Because the nominee will also have an affect on House and Senate races. A strong one will carry seats for Republicans over the top and a weak one will sink the prospects of candidates who might otherwise win.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Christopher Hitchens- A Powerful Voice for Atheism: Dead at 62
Hitchens had been battling cancer for some time but it did come as a shock when I read the news that he had died.
He was one of the most intelligent and relentless critics of religion of recent memory. He had a way of destroying the arguments of the religious with a ruthless glee that made his supporters cheer and his critics howl. He was one of the main voices I listened to when I was still new to Atheism. I never knew the man, like many of his supporters I would have liked to, but also like many of his supporters I felt I knew him in a sense from his writing and his famous debates his religious opponents.
I am certain his book God is Not Great will be read for many years to come and admired and scorned as an unapologetic, take-no-prisoners argument against all religion and superstition.
Hitchens was also noted for being a steadfast supporter of the Iraq War, a position which drew criticism and sometimes contempt from the Left. But Hitchens himself never really left the Left, he may have softened from the days when he called himself a Socialist but he was never a conservative.
Even though I am firmly a creature of the Right I will miss his razor-sharp intellect and his give-'em-hell approach to taking on religion.
He was one of the most intelligent and relentless critics of religion of recent memory. He had a way of destroying the arguments of the religious with a ruthless glee that made his supporters cheer and his critics howl. He was one of the main voices I listened to when I was still new to Atheism. I never knew the man, like many of his supporters I would have liked to, but also like many of his supporters I felt I knew him in a sense from his writing and his famous debates his religious opponents.
I am certain his book God is Not Great will be read for many years to come and admired and scorned as an unapologetic, take-no-prisoners argument against all religion and superstition.
Hitchens was also noted for being a steadfast supporter of the Iraq War, a position which drew criticism and sometimes contempt from the Left. But Hitchens himself never really left the Left, he may have softened from the days when he called himself a Socialist but he was never a conservative.
Even though I am firmly a creature of the Right I will miss his razor-sharp intellect and his give-'em-hell approach to taking on religion.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Earthquake in Canada
Canada's May 2 Federal Election changed to landscape of Canadian politics is a big way.
Going in to the election things looked like this:
Conservatives: 143
Liberals: 77
NDP: 37
BQ: 47
Green: 0
With only 143 out of 308 seats in the House of Commons the Conservatives had a minority government. After the Liberal party leader, Michael Ignatieff, introduced a motion of no-confidence against the government it passed which triggered elections.
The led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper Conservatives won a majority government, the Liberals, a long entrenched institution in Canada was pushed back to a distant 3rd place losing not only their official opposition status but Ignatieff lost his own seat to a Conservative. The NDP, a hard left party sky-rocketed into 2nd place with their best ever showing in history by far. Many of the seats they won came at the expense of the BQ, Quebec's separatist party which was nearly wiped off the map completely. Like the Liberals, the BQ also lost the seat of their leader, Gilles Duceppe. But in this case he lost to an NDP candidate.
The new map looks like this.
Conservatives: 167
NDP: 102
Liberals: 34
BQ: 4
Green: 1
Whether or not the Liberals can recover is up for debate but the Bloc Quebecois is finished as a political force in Quebec. And the Conservatives will have at least four years to govern as a majority.
Going in to the election things looked like this:
Conservatives: 143
Liberals: 77
NDP: 37
BQ: 47
Green: 0
With only 143 out of 308 seats in the House of Commons the Conservatives had a minority government. After the Liberal party leader, Michael Ignatieff, introduced a motion of no-confidence against the government it passed which triggered elections.
The led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper Conservatives won a majority government, the Liberals, a long entrenched institution in Canada was pushed back to a distant 3rd place losing not only their official opposition status but Ignatieff lost his own seat to a Conservative. The NDP, a hard left party sky-rocketed into 2nd place with their best ever showing in history by far. Many of the seats they won came at the expense of the BQ, Quebec's separatist party which was nearly wiped off the map completely. Like the Liberals, the BQ also lost the seat of their leader, Gilles Duceppe. But in this case he lost to an NDP candidate.
The new map looks like this.
Conservatives: 167
NDP: 102
Liberals: 34
BQ: 4
Green: 1
Whether or not the Liberals can recover is up for debate but the Bloc Quebecois is finished as a political force in Quebec. And the Conservatives will have at least four years to govern as a majority.
Osama bin Laden is Dead
On May 1 2011 Americans got the news they have been wanting to hear since 9/11. A team of US Navy SEALs raided his compound in Pakistan, not far from a Pakistani military academy. Osama bin Laden was killed along with one of bin Laden's adult sons.
This is great news for the War on Terror and for free people everywhere in the world.
This is great news for the War on Terror and for free people everywhere in the world.
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