There is just no other way to put it. The Democrats were beaten bad in last night's midterm.
House
Republicans have picked up at least 10 seats raising their minimum seat count in the next congress to 243, one more than the 242 they had after the 2010 elections and their are 14 races yet to be called.
Senate
Republicans held all of their own seats and picked up seats in: West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas, Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa for a minimum pickup of 7. And there are 2 races to be decided: Alaska, where Republican Dan Sullivan leads incumbent Senator Mark Begich by 4 points, but it has yet to be called, and Louisiana where it will head to a runoff in December,
Three Democratic incumbents have been defeated: Mark Pryor in Arkansas, Mark Uall in Colorado and Kay Hagan in North Carolina. This could go as high as 5 if Mark Begich loses in Alaska and Mary Landrieu loses in Louisiana.
Democrats held off a challenge by Scott Brown in New Hampshire and will also likely win in Virginia where the elections results gave a scare to Democrats turning out to be much closer than they had thought.
Gubernatorial
Republicans lost Pennsylvania decisively, incumbent Governor Corbett lost to Democrat Tom Wolf and look likely to lose Alaska where independent candidate Bill Walker is leading Republican Governor Sean Parnell.
But they held onto the rest of their seats. They fended off challenges in Wisconsin, Florida, Maine, and Kansas. While they picked up seats in: Arkansas, Illinois, Massachusetts and Maryland.
Republicans lost one incumbent, Pennsylvania and will lose two if Parnell loses in Alaska. Democrats only lost one incumbent, in Illinois.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Monday, November 3, 2014
Last Minute Election Thoughts
Most pundits think Republicans will take the Senate and make modest gains in the House. But most also think Republicans are in for some losses in the Governors' races.
House
No one seriously thinks Republicans will lose the House, or even lose seats from their majority, but there are not a whole lot of seats left for them to win. In 2010 the GOP picked up 63 seats, almost reaching the limits of how many seats it was statistically possible for them to win. In 2012 they lost 8 seats, and this years they will get some or all of them back, and if they are really lucky just a few more.
But the high 240s are the limit of what the GOP can realistically win, and at this point I'm guessing they will gain 7-8 seats.
Senate
Republicans are in for gains tomorrow, that much is sure, but how many? That is the question. They will almost certainly take West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana. That brings them up to 48 seats. Then there is Arkansas which is almost as certain to go Republican. That brings them to 49. That is the extent of the sure or almost sure bets.
After that there is Alaska, which is leaning Republican but there is a small chance the Democratic Senator Mark Begich could hold on. Then there is Louisiana which will probably go to a runoff, but the Republican is favored to win, however Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu has beaten the odds before, but I think this year that will change. If Republicans take both races they reach 51 seats, and take control of the Senate.
Then there are Colorado and Iowa. Colorado Democratic Senator Mark Udall looks like he is in a lot of trouble, he is consistently behind and his challenger Cory Gardener has run a great campaign, which could also be said about the race in Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst has run a solid campaign and Congressman Bruce Braley has made a series of mistakes that has turned this seat from an almost sure Democratic hold to a tossup with the Republican favored to win. Having said that only one poll as of now has this race more than a 2 point race so an upset win by Braley is possible, but I would say Ernst has the edge. If Republicans take both seats they will have 53 seats in the Senate, but then there are the Democrat pick up opportunities to deal with.
There are only 3: Kentucky, Georgia and Kansas (most people think independent Greg Orman will side with Democrats if elected). In Kentucky it looks like Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has begun to build a lead and this seat is no longer endangered. In Georgia Democrat Michelle Nunn has managed to distance herself from Obama while David Perdue (the Republican) has run a bad race, even though he still leads and is slightly favored to win this will likely go to a runoff in January because to a candidate must win more than 50% of the vote and a libertarian candidate is pulling about 4% of the vote away from Perdue. Mr. Perdue is favored to win in January, but there is always the possibility of a Democrat upset win, even in November with exceptionally high black turnout.
The other race is the one Republicans really have to worry about, Kansas. Three term Senator Pat Roberts is consistently (although very slightly) behind independent candidate Greg Orman who will likely side with Democrats if he wins. Roberts is stuck in the low 40s and can't get any higher so unless Republican turnout is sky high this race looks like a loss for the GOP.
There are two long shots for Republicans but I doubt they will win either, but there is a small chance, North Carolina and New Hampshire. In North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan (D) has maintained a consistent lead over Thom Tillis (R), although the lead is small and Hagan is under 50%, but high Dem turnout and a libertarian candidate will likely save her. In New Hampshire Scott Brown (R) had no chance at all until a few weeks ago, Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) has made a series of gaffes and Brown has run a great campaign. But Shaheen's popularity is close to 50% and has been consistently ahead so she will likely hold on. But if either of these Races go Republican it will be a very long night for the Democrats.
There is still a path for holding onto the Senate for the Democrats and here it is: Take Kansas and hold unto at least 2 out of 3 of: Iowa, Louisiana, and Colorado or one out of three and take Georgia.
Governorships
Democrats are expected to take Pennsylvania for almost certain and look to also take Florida, Kansas and probably Maine. They also have decent chances in Wisconsin and Michigan but are by no means close to sure wins.
Republicans will almost certainly take Arkansas, and could take Colorado, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois and Rhode Island, but they are tossups at best.
When all is said and done Democrats can expect to gain up to 5 seats and a worst case scenario lose 1 or 2 net.
House
No one seriously thinks Republicans will lose the House, or even lose seats from their majority, but there are not a whole lot of seats left for them to win. In 2010 the GOP picked up 63 seats, almost reaching the limits of how many seats it was statistically possible for them to win. In 2012 they lost 8 seats, and this years they will get some or all of them back, and if they are really lucky just a few more.
But the high 240s are the limit of what the GOP can realistically win, and at this point I'm guessing they will gain 7-8 seats.
Senate
Republicans are in for gains tomorrow, that much is sure, but how many? That is the question. They will almost certainly take West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana. That brings them up to 48 seats. Then there is Arkansas which is almost as certain to go Republican. That brings them to 49. That is the extent of the sure or almost sure bets.
After that there is Alaska, which is leaning Republican but there is a small chance the Democratic Senator Mark Begich could hold on. Then there is Louisiana which will probably go to a runoff, but the Republican is favored to win, however Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu has beaten the odds before, but I think this year that will change. If Republicans take both races they reach 51 seats, and take control of the Senate.
Then there are Colorado and Iowa. Colorado Democratic Senator Mark Udall looks like he is in a lot of trouble, he is consistently behind and his challenger Cory Gardener has run a great campaign, which could also be said about the race in Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst has run a solid campaign and Congressman Bruce Braley has made a series of mistakes that has turned this seat from an almost sure Democratic hold to a tossup with the Republican favored to win. Having said that only one poll as of now has this race more than a 2 point race so an upset win by Braley is possible, but I would say Ernst has the edge. If Republicans take both seats they will have 53 seats in the Senate, but then there are the Democrat pick up opportunities to deal with.
There are only 3: Kentucky, Georgia and Kansas (most people think independent Greg Orman will side with Democrats if elected). In Kentucky it looks like Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has begun to build a lead and this seat is no longer endangered. In Georgia Democrat Michelle Nunn has managed to distance herself from Obama while David Perdue (the Republican) has run a bad race, even though he still leads and is slightly favored to win this will likely go to a runoff in January because to a candidate must win more than 50% of the vote and a libertarian candidate is pulling about 4% of the vote away from Perdue. Mr. Perdue is favored to win in January, but there is always the possibility of a Democrat upset win, even in November with exceptionally high black turnout.
The other race is the one Republicans really have to worry about, Kansas. Three term Senator Pat Roberts is consistently (although very slightly) behind independent candidate Greg Orman who will likely side with Democrats if he wins. Roberts is stuck in the low 40s and can't get any higher so unless Republican turnout is sky high this race looks like a loss for the GOP.
There are two long shots for Republicans but I doubt they will win either, but there is a small chance, North Carolina and New Hampshire. In North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan (D) has maintained a consistent lead over Thom Tillis (R), although the lead is small and Hagan is under 50%, but high Dem turnout and a libertarian candidate will likely save her. In New Hampshire Scott Brown (R) had no chance at all until a few weeks ago, Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) has made a series of gaffes and Brown has run a great campaign. But Shaheen's popularity is close to 50% and has been consistently ahead so she will likely hold on. But if either of these Races go Republican it will be a very long night for the Democrats.
There is still a path for holding onto the Senate for the Democrats and here it is: Take Kansas and hold unto at least 2 out of 3 of: Iowa, Louisiana, and Colorado or one out of three and take Georgia.
Governorships
Democrats are expected to take Pennsylvania for almost certain and look to also take Florida, Kansas and probably Maine. They also have decent chances in Wisconsin and Michigan but are by no means close to sure wins.
Republicans will almost certainly take Arkansas, and could take Colorado, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois and Rhode Island, but they are tossups at best.
When all is said and done Democrats can expect to gain up to 5 seats and a worst case scenario lose 1 or 2 net.
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
Republicans May Win the Senate, but it's not a Lock
The math is simply against the Democrats this year, they will lose seats in November, multiple seats. Many say they will lose they Senate, and they might, but it is not a certainty.
There are 36 seats up for grabs in the Senate in November and the Democrats are defending 21 compared to Republicans who are defending only 15. Many are safe for one party or the other, but ?? have a reasonable chance for a pick up for one party or the the other.
Dem Pickup Possibilities
The Democrats have only 3 seats where there is a reasonable chance for a pickup.
1. Georgia- This is race where the Republican is ahead, but not far enough to call it safe.
2. Kansas- Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts is easily the most endangered Republican in the senate. He is facing independent Greg Orman who has said he will caucus with whoever wins the senate, but many think if the senate is 50/50, a distinct possibility, he will go with the Democrats. He has been a Democrat and a Republican in the past, but his last run at elective office was as a Democrat.
3. Kentucky- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has survived close elections before, and he has pulled ahead in this race, but with his low popularity there is always an outside chance he may lose.
Republican Pickup Possibilities
There are several seats where Republicans could take seats from the Democrats. Some are all but certain, others are long shots, still others are in-between.
1. Alaska- One term Senator Mark Begich won this seat narrowly against a badly damaged incumbent in a terrible environment for Republicans and is seeking another term. He has been behind and ahead in the race, but always under 50% and Alaska is a Republican state. At best this is a toss up, at worst a lean Republican seat.
2. Arkansas has been trending more and more Republican and despite his family name Senator Mark Pryor is in real trouble. This seat is leaning toward a Republican pick up, but is not a slam dunk.
3. Colorado- This was thought to be a likely Dem hold but recent polls have put Republican Cory Gardener ahead of incumbent Senator Mark Udall. If this trend continues I'd say this is another lean Republican seat, but these polls may be a flash in the pan.
4. Iowa- This was likely Dem hold until recent polls showed Republican Joni Ernst tied or ahead of Democrat Bruce Braley. But these polls may not hold or be outliers. Until more polls come out showing a trend I will assume Democrats will hold this seat.
5. Louisiana- Polls show Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu well under 50% and in some cases behind Republican Bill Cassidy in a race with two other Republicans. This race will almost certainly go to a runoff in December. And Landrieu is likely to lose, although she has survived the unpopularity of her party before in elections that were very bad for Democrats, so anything is possible.
6. Michigan- Possibly a sleeper race as polls have shown it close, but the GOP's unpopularity in federal statewide elections in this state must give the Democrats and advantage.
7. Minnesota- A long shot but Republicans have a slim chance to unseat Al Franken.
8. Montana- An all but certain Republican pickup.
9. New Hampshire- Polls have narrowed, but I believe Democrat Jeanne Shaheen will hold this seat against Republican former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown.
10. North Carolina- Democrat Kay Hagan has managed to stay ahead in a somewhat red state in a bad environment for Democrats by running against the state legislature. I'd say right now it is leaning toward a Dem hold, but is by no means safe. For now I'd call it a Democrat hold.
11. South Dakota- This has become a 4 way race with one of the candidates being former Republican Senator Larry Pressler, but Republicans are heavily favored to take this seat from the Democrats.
12. Virginia- Republicans were hopeful to take this seat from Dem incumbent Mark Warner but were never able to get any traction. This seat is safe for the Democrats and only mentioned because Republicans had hopes of winning it.
13. West Virginia- This state is becoming more Republican every year, which is probably why Senator Jay Rockefeller decided not to run for reelection. This seat is all but a guaranteed Republican pickup.
There are 36 seats up for grabs in the Senate in November and the Democrats are defending 21 compared to Republicans who are defending only 15. Many are safe for one party or the other, but ?? have a reasonable chance for a pick up for one party or the the other.
Dem Pickup Possibilities
The Democrats have only 3 seats where there is a reasonable chance for a pickup.
1. Georgia- This is race where the Republican is ahead, but not far enough to call it safe.
2. Kansas- Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts is easily the most endangered Republican in the senate. He is facing independent Greg Orman who has said he will caucus with whoever wins the senate, but many think if the senate is 50/50, a distinct possibility, he will go with the Democrats. He has been a Democrat and a Republican in the past, but his last run at elective office was as a Democrat.
3. Kentucky- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has survived close elections before, and he has pulled ahead in this race, but with his low popularity there is always an outside chance he may lose.
There are several seats where Republicans could take seats from the Democrats. Some are all but certain, others are long shots, still others are in-between.
1. Alaska- One term Senator Mark Begich won this seat narrowly against a badly damaged incumbent in a terrible environment for Republicans and is seeking another term. He has been behind and ahead in the race, but always under 50% and Alaska is a Republican state. At best this is a toss up, at worst a lean Republican seat.
2. Arkansas has been trending more and more Republican and despite his family name Senator Mark Pryor is in real trouble. This seat is leaning toward a Republican pick up, but is not a slam dunk.
3. Colorado- This was thought to be a likely Dem hold but recent polls have put Republican Cory Gardener ahead of incumbent Senator Mark Udall. If this trend continues I'd say this is another lean Republican seat, but these polls may be a flash in the pan.
4. Iowa- This was likely Dem hold until recent polls showed Republican Joni Ernst tied or ahead of Democrat Bruce Braley. But these polls may not hold or be outliers. Until more polls come out showing a trend I will assume Democrats will hold this seat.
5. Louisiana- Polls show Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu well under 50% and in some cases behind Republican Bill Cassidy in a race with two other Republicans. This race will almost certainly go to a runoff in December. And Landrieu is likely to lose, although she has survived the unpopularity of her party before in elections that were very bad for Democrats, so anything is possible.
6. Michigan- Possibly a sleeper race as polls have shown it close, but the GOP's unpopularity in federal statewide elections in this state must give the Democrats and advantage.
7. Minnesota- A long shot but Republicans have a slim chance to unseat Al Franken.
8. Montana- An all but certain Republican pickup.
9. New Hampshire- Polls have narrowed, but I believe Democrat Jeanne Shaheen will hold this seat against Republican former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown.
10. North Carolina- Democrat Kay Hagan has managed to stay ahead in a somewhat red state in a bad environment for Democrats by running against the state legislature. I'd say right now it is leaning toward a Dem hold, but is by no means safe. For now I'd call it a Democrat hold.
11. South Dakota- This has become a 4 way race with one of the candidates being former Republican Senator Larry Pressler, but Republicans are heavily favored to take this seat from the Democrats.
12. Virginia- Republicans were hopeful to take this seat from Dem incumbent Mark Warner but were never able to get any traction. This seat is safe for the Democrats and only mentioned because Republicans had hopes of winning it.
13. West Virginia- This state is becoming more Republican every year, which is probably why Senator Jay Rockefeller decided not to run for reelection. This seat is all but a guaranteed Republican pickup.
Final Analysis
Of the Republican seats I'd say only one will be picked up by the Dems, Kansas.
Of the Democratic seats 3 are a sure thing for Republicans: Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia.
3 lean toward a Republican pickup: Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana.
4 are tossups or leaning Dem: Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, but all are favoring the Dem at the moment or are using polls that could be aberrations (time will tell).
Things could change, but as of now it looks like Republicans will pick up a net of 5 seats making it a 50/50 senate. This would give Greg Orman the power to decide who gets the majority, Dems in a 50/50 Senate with Vice President Biden breaking the tie or a 51/49 Republican Senate.
Things could change, but as of now it looks like Republicans will pick up a net of 5 seats making it a 50/50 senate. This would give Greg Orman the power to decide who gets the majority, Dems in a 50/50 Senate with Vice President Biden breaking the tie or a 51/49 Republican Senate.
Sunday, March 30, 2014
Global Warming Thoughts
I am still on the fence on this issue. Is the Earth warming? If it is are Humans causing it? I don't know. But there are more questions that need to be asked: If the Earth is getting warmer and Humans are causing it can we do anything about it? And if so what?
Although I am still on the fence I do have some firm opinions about global warming:
1. Both sides are firmly entrenched and many simply will not listen to the other.
2. Both sides repeat things that simply are not true:
a. The pro side: things like the seas will rise 20 feet.
b. The con side: things like volcanoes emit more greenhouse gases than Humans.
3. The left is using the issue for political purposes. They are using it to pass new government controls over the economy they would want to pass even if the issue of global warming did not exist.
4. If global warming is real, it is caused by Humans and we can do something about it the left does not have the right solutions.
More government control is rarely the answer, it is often the problem. The solutions to this problem, if there is a problem, will for the most part be found in the private sector. I'm not saying there is no place at all for regulation in controlling pollution, just that it has far too big a role at present and that what regulation we do need should be smarter as well as less intrusive.
The right needs to get involved on this issue with more than just a naysayer's role. What free market ways can we reduce humanity's carbon footprint? What innovations are there waiting to be invented that could reduce the amount of CO2 that gets in the air? Even if only to take this issue away from the left we should find out.
Facts:
1. Humans emit 31.32 billion tons of CO2 a year.
2. America is responsible for 5.433 billion tons of these emissions.
3. China is responsible for 8.286 billion tons of these emissions.
4. India is responsible for 2.008 billion tons of these emissions.
5. Volcanoes emit about 65-319 million tons of CO2 a year, far less than Humans.
6. An acre of forest takes in 30,000 pounds of CO2 and releases 22,000 pounds of oxygen into the air.
7. There are currently 9.6 billion acres of trees, which cover 29.6% of the Earth's land.
8. The atmosphere (as of 2014) has 397 parts per million CO2.
Although I am still on the fence I do have some firm opinions about global warming:
1. Both sides are firmly entrenched and many simply will not listen to the other.
2. Both sides repeat things that simply are not true:
a. The pro side: things like the seas will rise 20 feet.
b. The con side: things like volcanoes emit more greenhouse gases than Humans.
3. The left is using the issue for political purposes. They are using it to pass new government controls over the economy they would want to pass even if the issue of global warming did not exist.
4. If global warming is real, it is caused by Humans and we can do something about it the left does not have the right solutions.
More government control is rarely the answer, it is often the problem. The solutions to this problem, if there is a problem, will for the most part be found in the private sector. I'm not saying there is no place at all for regulation in controlling pollution, just that it has far too big a role at present and that what regulation we do need should be smarter as well as less intrusive.
The right needs to get involved on this issue with more than just a naysayer's role. What free market ways can we reduce humanity's carbon footprint? What innovations are there waiting to be invented that could reduce the amount of CO2 that gets in the air? Even if only to take this issue away from the left we should find out.
Facts:
1. Humans emit 31.32 billion tons of CO2 a year.
2. America is responsible for 5.433 billion tons of these emissions.
3. China is responsible for 8.286 billion tons of these emissions.
4. India is responsible for 2.008 billion tons of these emissions.
5. Volcanoes emit about 65-319 million tons of CO2 a year, far less than Humans.
6. An acre of forest takes in 30,000 pounds of CO2 and releases 22,000 pounds of oxygen into the air.
7. There are currently 9.6 billion acres of trees, which cover 29.6% of the Earth's land.
8. The atmosphere (as of 2014) has 397 parts per million CO2.
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